USD/CAD Price News, Forecast: Loonie Holds Firm as Canada’s GDP Rebounds

At the end of last week, Canada released Q3 national accounts data, showing that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% after a 0.5% contraction in the previous quarter, while GDP per capita increased by 0.5% after a decline of 0.5%. In Q3, the country recorded the largest drop in goods imports since 2022 at –2.2%, mainly due to lower inflows of unprocessed precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and others. Exports of goods and services rose by 0.2%, a modest improvement compared with the 7.0% fall in Q2 that had been driven by US trade tariffs. The current increase was supported by a 1.7% rise in commercial services exports and a 6.7% gain in crude oil shipments. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. point to slower household consumption and weaker capital investment as key factors weighing on the recovery, noting that although industrial output is inching higher, consumer spending remains subdued amid external trade uncertainty and a softer labor market.

In turn, the US dollar continues to trade unevenly: in today’s session, the index extended its local advance, hovering near 99.40 on the USDX. Attention today will focus on November manufacturing activity data from S&P Global at 16:45 (GMT+2) and from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) at 17:00 (GMT+2). Forecasts suggest that the S&P Global index will hold at 51.9 points, while the ISM gauge may ease from 48.7 to 48.6 points, reinforcing expectations of another interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction currently stands at 87.4%, compared with 83.9% at the end of last week.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, the price is correcting while remaining above the support line of the ascending channel, which has dynamic boundaries at 1.4250–1.3950.

Technical indicators are softening a previously unstable buy signal: the EMA range on the Alligator indicator is narrowing, and the fast moving averages are almost aligned with the signal line, while the AO histogram is printing new corrective bars just above the zero line.

Support levels: 1.3910, 1.3730.

Resistance levels: 1.4050, 1.4260.

Trading scenarios and USD/CAD outlook

If the corrective decline continues and the price consolidates below the 1.3910 support level, short positions will be relevant with a target at 1.3730. Stop-loss — 1.4000. Implementation horizon: 7 days or more.

If the upward move resumes and the price consolidates above 1.4050, long positions will be relevant with a target at 1.4260. Stop-loss — 1.3990.