USD/CHF Approaches 0.8065 Resistance After Fed Rate Cut and Swiss Data

In October, Switzerland’s KOF Leading Indicators Index increased from 98.0 to 101.3, surpassing the forecast of 98.4. However, the Swiss franc weakened by 0.24% over the day as the U.S. dollar strengthened following the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut from 4.25% to 4.00% and the announcement of the end of its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program effective November 1. During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell justified the move by citing slowing inflation and a cooling labor market, adding that further policy easing would depend on future macroeconomic data.

The instrument continues to trade within a long-term downtrend, having reached support at 0.7897 in mid-October. From that area, a correction began toward 0.8065 and the trend boundary at 0.8150, the breakout of which would signal a reversal and validate long positions targeting 0.8250. Conversely, if resistance at 0.8065 holds, the downward movement is likely to resume toward 0.7897, 0.7822, and 0.7610. The price currently sits above the 21-day EMA but below the 190-day EMA, indicating a short-term bullish and long-term bearish structure. The RSI (14) approaches the overbought zone but still allows for both long and short setups.

The medium-term trend remains bearish: in early October, the pair retreated from 0.8079–0.8056 to the zone near 0.7898–0.7871 and has since rebounded toward 0.8079–0.8056. A rejection from this area could renew short positions targeting 0.7954 and 0.7871, whereas a breakout above would flip the trend bullish and open the way toward 0.8321–0.8297.

Support and Resistance Levels

Resistance: 0.8065, 0.8150, 0.8250.

Support: 0.7897, 0.7822, 0.7610.

Trading Scenarios and USD/CHF Forecast

Short positions can be opened from 0.8065, targeting 0.7897 with a stop-loss at 0.8115. Estimated duration: 9–12 days.

Long positions can be opened above 0.8115, targeting 0.8250 with a stop-loss at 0.8055.