Dollar Weakens After U.S. Jobs Data as Forex Markets Track Global Risks
United States. The U.S. dollar is weakening against the euro and the pound, while showing mixed dynamics against the Japanese yen.
United States. The U.S. dollar is weakening against the euro and the pound, while showing mixed dynamics against the Japanese yen.
The EUR/USD pair is moving within a corrective trend near the level of 1.1631 amid stable dynamics of the US dollar and neutral macroeconomic data from the EU. Yesterday, Germany reported a decline in imports and exports by 5.9% and 2.3%, respectively, which increased the trade balance surplus from €17.4B to €21.2B. Meanwhile, in France, exports rose to €53.4B while imports decreased to €55.3B, narrowing the trade deficit from –€4.3B to –€1.8B.
The pound is extending its bullish momentum, testing the 1.3453 level for an upside breakout during the Asian session, while traders await the release of U.S. inflation data today at 14:30 (GMT+2). Current forecasts suggest that the core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, will remain around 2.5% year-over-year, while on a monthly basis a slight slowdown from 0.3% to 0.2% is possible. However, this will not provide a full picture of the current situation, as it will not yet reflect the latest sharp rise in energy prices caused by the escalation in the Middle East.
European stock indices continue their strong downward movement, driven by two key factors: the reallocation of investment capital from risk assets into bonds and concerns about rapidly rising inflation amid a potential energy crisis in the EU caused by disruptions in energy supplies from Persian Gulf countries. At the moment, the CAC 40 index is trading near the 7941.0 level.
The Australian dollar is correcting near 0.7062 after renewing local highs from March 5, while market attention remains focused on the escalation of the Middle East conflict, which has already triggered a sharp rise in oil prices. During the previous Asian session, WTI Crude Oil surged by more than 25.0%, breaking above $110.0 per barrel and reaching its highest level since July 2022.
The GBP/USD pair continues to show negative dynamics for the second consecutive month and is currently testing the 1.3307 level (Murray level [5/8]) amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
During the morning session, the ASX 200 index is showing a local downward trend around 8693.0 amid the completion of the main phase of corporate earnings releases from its major components, as well as a correction in the domestic bond market.
During the morning session, the USD/JPY pair is posting modest gains, renewing the highs from January 23 and testing the 158.00 level as traders assess the latest U.S. labor market report. In February, the number of nonfarm payrolls declined by 92.0K, although analysts had expected an increase of 59.0K, while the January figure was revised downward to 126.0K. At the same time, the unemployment rate accelerated to 4.4%, and average hourly earnings remained at 0.4% month-over-month, signaling continued price pressure. Against this backdrop, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remains above 4.100%, while the U.S. Dollar Index is trading near three-month highs, supported by geopolitical tensions.
The European currency is testing the 1.1530 level for a potential upside breakout as investors analyze the February U.S. labor market report, which turned out weaker than expected.
The USD/JPY pair is correcting within an upward trend near 157.54 amid the strengthening of the US dollar, which is approaching the 100.00 mark on the USDX index, while the yen remains under pressure due to the sharp rise in energy prices following supply disruptions from the Middle East after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
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