Forex and Oil Outlook: PMI, US Tariffs and Middle East Risks
United States. The US dollar is weakening against the euro while showing mixed performance against the Japanese yen and the British pound.
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24
July
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By Sagar Dua - 3
The US dollar is showing mixed dynamics against the Japanese yen, with USD/JPY consolidating near 163.80 after approaching 163.96, its highest level in around 40 years. The pair remains supported by the wide interest rate differential between the United States and Japan, renewed demand for dollar liquidity and rising costs for Japan’s imported energy supplies amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
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By Sagar Dua
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During the Asian session, GBP/USD remains in a corrective phase, trading near 1.3318 as the US dollar benefits from renewed safe-haven demand. Sterling is struggling to restore its previous upward momentum as investors reassess the monetary policy outlook for the world’s leading central banks, while persistent geopolitical risks continue to affect energy prices and global inflation expectations.
23
July
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By Sagar Dua
- 12
EUR/USD is trading near 1.1432 in a corrective move as market participants assess the impact of two key factors: escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a weakening economic outlook for the euro area. According to the latest data from Eurostat, annual consumer price inflation fell from 3.2% to 2.8% in June, marking its first decline since an inflationary trend emerged at the beginning of the year. Inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco eased from 2.6% to 2.4%. The most significant slowdown was recorded in the energy sector, where inflation fell from 10.8% to 8.5%, while services inflation declined from 3.5% to 3.2%. Annual inflation eased in 22 of the EU’s 27 member states, reaching 2.4% in Germany, 2.0% in France, 3.0% in Italy and 3.6% in Spain.
22
July
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By Sagar Dua
- 19
The euro is correcting around 1.1411 as investors focus on the latest inflation data, which are shaping expectations for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy trajectory ahead of tomorrow’s meeting at 14:15 (GMT+2).
21
July
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By Sagar Dua
- 16
Bank of America economists expect oil prices in US Dollars to climb back above $100 per barrel if disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz persist for several more weeks.
20
July
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By Sagar Dua
- 23
United States. The US Dollar is weakening against the Yen and showing mixed performance against the Pound and the Euro.
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By Sagar Dua
- 24
The Euro has recovered from its recent lows, but ING believes EUR/USD may struggle to extend its advance as renewed energy-market risks and changing interest-rate expectations weigh on the single currency.
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By Sagar Dua
- 28
During the Asian session, XAU/USD is consolidating near 4,014.01, reflecting a balance between demand for safe-haven assets and a stronger US Dollar. Market participants are refraining from opening large positions while awaiting new macroeconomic signals and further developments in the Middle East. The precious metal ended last week with a moderate decline as the US currency strengthened amid increased demand for the Dollar as a global reserve asset during the regional escalation.
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