Alcoa Stock Forecast: AA Trades at $62.59 as $65M Norway Expansion Targets 70,000 MT Low-Carbon Output

At the end of last week, the Board of Directors met and outlined priority objectives for upcoming periods. The primary focus will be continued investment in the development of existing low-carbon aluminum production facilities to maintain the company's leading market position in this segment. As part of this strategy, $65.0 million has been allocated for further capacity expansion at the Mosjøen plant in Norway, with plans to increase annual output to 70,000 metric tonnes and introduce technology enabling the use of post-consumer recycled metal in the production cycle — in line with the company's strategy to reduce its carbon footprint and advance the circular economy.

Total investment in the facility since the beginning of 2020 has exceeded $180.0 million, cementing its status as one of the key industrial sites in northern Norway, where it plays an important role in the regional economy and provides employment for more than 700 workers. The plant continues to modernize its processes, leveraging the high share of renewable hydropower energy that characterizes the Norwegian aluminum industry.

The Q2 financial report is due in July. Revenue is expected to grow from $3.19 billion to $3.90 billion, compared to $3.02 billion in the same period last year, while earnings per share are forecast to rise from $1.40 to $1.96, versus $0.62 a year ago. The company maintains a minimal dividend policy: on June 5, investors will receive $0.10 per share, equivalent to a quarterly yield of 0.64% — well below the sector average of 1.88%.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the stock is pulling away from the resistance line of an ascending channel with dynamic boundaries at $75.00–$60.00.

Technical indicators are holding an unstable sell signal: the Alligator's EMA range remains narrow, while the Awesome Oscillator histogram is forming descending bars below the zero line.

Resistance levels: 66.00, 74.00.

Support levels: 60.00, 52.30.

Alcoa Corp. Stock Forecast and Trading Scenarios

Short positions can be opened after the price declines and consolidates below $60.00, targeting $52.30, with a stop-loss around $64.00. Time horizon: 7 days or more.

Long positions can be opened after the price rises and consolidates above $66.00, targeting $74.00, with a stop-loss below the current price level at $63.00.