ONDO Price Forecast: Token Surges 10% on SEC Tokenized Stock Exemption News — Can the Rally Hold?

Technical Picture

Over the last three 4-hour candles, ONDO has been trading between a low of $0.37 and a high of $0.40. The current closing price of $0.38 represents a gain of approximately 10.03% over the prior 24-hour close of $0.34. Market capitalization stands at around $1.83 billion.

Price is trading above the EMA-20, which is currently running at $0.36 — a constructive sign. However, recent candles are showing a short-term sequence of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting some internal weakness beneath the surface. Immediate support sits at $0.37, followed by the EMA-20 at $0.36, with a deeper support zone at $0.34. On the upside, resistance levels are located at $0.40 and $0.43. As long as ONDO holds above the EMA-20, the short-term market structure remains neutral to slightly bullish.

Fading Momentum

The RSI (14) sits at 63.76, indicating elevated buying interest without yet signaling outright overbought conditions. The MACD histogram is showing a deceleration of upward momentum following the recent pullback — a short-term signal that buying pressure is beginning to ease.

The Bollinger Band width currently measures $0.07, with the upper band at $0.39 and the lower band at $0.32 — approximately 17.86% of the current price, pointing to moderately elevated volatility. After the sharp upward move, the market has entered a consolidation phase, keeping short-term risk elevated.

Short-Term Scenarios

Neutral Scenario (55%) — ONDO holds between $0.36 and $0.40 with stable closes, the RSI remains between 50 and 70, and the EMA-20 is defended. Price target: $0.36–$0.40. Invalidation: a close above $0.41.

Bullish Scenario (30%) — ONDO closes above $0.40, ideally on elevated volume, with the RSI rising above 70 and a confirmed break above $0.43. Price target: $0.40–$0.48. Invalidation: a drop below $0.36.

Bearish Scenario (15%) — ONDO breaks below the EMA-20 at $0.36, the RSI slides under 50, and a downside breakout occurs on elevated volume. Price target: $0.30–$0.34. Invalidation: a recovery above $0.40.

Overall, ONDO remains constructive as long as price holds above the EMA-20. A close above $0.40 could open the path toward $0.43–$0.49. A break below $0.36, on the other hand, would trigger downside pressure toward the $0.34–$0.30 zone.