However, Hayes—who is known for his critical analysis of crypto markets—warns that most of these would-be stablecoin firms are destined to fail. According to Hayes, future IPOs from stablecoin issuers will likely be aggressively overvalued, and the “Circle copycats” will ultimately flounder due to locked or restricted distribution channels.

“This is not the end, but the beginning of this cycle’s stablecoin mania,” Hayes commented, underscoring his view that the coming wave of public stablecoin companies should be “traded like a hot potato.” His advice to investors: don’t hold onto these stocks for too long.

Nonetheless, Hayes stopped short of recommending that investors short these stocks outright. He notes that prevailing pro-crypto sentiment in the U.S.—alongside the captivating stablecoin narrative—could propel valuations even higher in the short term.

The U.S. Senate is set to vote on June 17, 2025, on the GENIUS Act, a bipartisan stablecoin bill that could trigger a global surge in new stablecoin projects. Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov has suggested that the pending legislation may act as a catalyst for stablecoin launches worldwide.

Hayes, however, insists that access to core distribution channels remains the critical determinant for any stablecoin’s long-term success. According to his analysis, only three viable distribution avenues exist: crypto exchanges, Web2 social networks, and traditional banks. Without a foothold in at least one, a stablecoin project is likely doomed to obscurity.

Hayes argues that these key channels are already dominated by major players:

  • Newcomers will face steep fees from exchanges,
  • must forfeit margin to users, or
  • see banks and social networks launch their own proprietary stablecoins.

He calls Circle’s current valuation “wildly inflated.”

Interest in stablecoins continues to surge across the financial sector. The GENIUS Act, passed in the Senate on June 11, 2025, with bipartisan support, has shifted the legislative spotlight to the House of Representatives. U.S. Bancorp is reportedly piloting a proprietary stablecoin, while retail giants Walmart and Amazon are actively exploring their own stablecoin initiatives.

Meanwhile, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire has recently described stablecoins as the most efficient form of money yet created, suggesting the industry has yet to experience its “iPhone moment”—the inflection point when the broader public realizes the full potential of programmable digital dollars.