While investors speculate on the Bitcoin price forecast, scientists and security experts are sounding alarms over a far deeper risk: whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency can survive the quantum revolution. Industry timelines are accelerating—what was once considered a five-year horizon may now be just two to three years away from “Q-Day,” when quantum computers could break current cryptographic defenses.
David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, cautions that quantum computers could crack the complex algorithms that underpin Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies within as little as 24–36 months. “It is naïve to assume we have five more years. The timeline is likely much shorter,” he warns.
Global Quantum Investment Boom Signals Urgency
On Thursday, the South Korean government announced plans to invest approximately 650 billion won—over $480 million—in quantum technology R&D over the next eight years. This follows the UK’s commitment of more than $921 million just three days earlier to deploy quantum computing across industries, from energy to healthcare.
These announcements reflect a worldwide push: both governments and corporations are pouring unprecedented capital into the next major technology breakthrough. According to Quantum Insider, quantum technology investments surged 125% year-on-year in Q1 2025, topping $1.25 billion.
Why Quantum Computers Threaten Crypto Security
Current encryption standards—such as RSA-2048—rely on the mathematical difficulty of factoring large numbers. Even the most powerful classical supercomputers would require millennia to factor a 2048-bit key. RSA-2048, for instance, underpins vast swathes of online security and is considered unbreakable with today’s technology.
Factorization is the process of breaking a number into its prime components—e.g., 15 = 3 × 5. With RSA-2048, the product of two massive primes creates a key so large that brute-force attacks are impossible for classical computers. However, quantum algorithms, particularly Shor’s algorithm, can theoretically factor such keys in a fraction of the time—posing a fundamental risk to all blockchain and crypto assets.
Last month, Google Quantum AI announced that RSA-2048 could be cracked in under a week using less than a million qubits—if such hardware can be built. This suggests the window for secure encryption is closing faster than previously predicted.
Quantum Progress Accelerates: Research Highlights
In 2024, a Chinese research team led by Wang Chao at Shanghai University demonstrated a notable advance in quantum cryptoanalysis, using a D-Wave quantum annealer to factor a 22-bit RSA key—surpassing the prior record of 19 bits. While a 22-bit key is still vastly simpler than RSA-2048, this rapid progression is cause for concern.
As David Carvalho notes, “The leap from 19-bit to 22-bit might seem trivial, but the pace of progress is what’s alarming. If quantum hardware and algorithms scale at this rate, we may have only 24–36 months to adapt before public-key cryptography faces existential threats.”
Michele Mosca, a prominent cryptographer from the University of Waterloo, has previously estimated a one-in-seven chance that public-key encryption could be broken by 2026. Major firms—including IBM, Microsoft, and SWIFT—are already urging organizations to prepare for the transition to post-quantum cryptography.
“Every day we delay brings cybercriminals closer to breaching critical systems, and what’s lost may never be recovered. It’s becoming dangerously urgent,” warns Carvalho.
Reality Check: How Close Is the Quantum Threat?
Despite recent milestones, breaking a 22-bit key is a far cry from shattering 2048-bit RSA. The leap to breaking RSA-2048 is exponential: it will require a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) with not just millions of stable qubits, but robust error correction and sustained uptime for days. Many experts believe such machines won’t be available until at least the late 2030s.
Nevertheless, quantum progress is moving fast—governments and the crypto industry can’t afford complacency. As we race toward “Q-Day,” developers and blockchain architects must prioritize quantum-resistant cryptography. Post-quantum algorithms, such as lattice-based encryption, are under review as potential defenses. Bitcoin’s open-source community and other major protocols face mounting pressure to plan, test, and implement these upgrades before the “point of no return.”
What’s Next for Bitcoin Security?
While Bitcoin’s main threat isn’t imminent collapse, the risks are real. Any widespread quantum breakthrough could undermine the security of existing wallets, expose past transactions, and threaten network trust. The crypto sector has 2–3 years to start mass migration to quantum-secure wallets and transaction models—far less time than once assumed.
The push toward quantum-safe cryptography is no longer a theoretical debate; it’s a race against time. Companies and investors should demand post-quantum security audits and ensure that core blockchain infrastructure remains viable in the quantum era.