The decline in Urals crude prices is outpacing forecasts. According to Reuters, the discount on Russian oil has widened to around 4.00 dollars per barrel due to partial cuts in purchases by Indian and Chinese refineries following U.S. sanctions announced on Tuesday. Analysts expect the negative trend to continue, as the White House’s measures allow up to a year for companies to completely stop dealings with Russian firms. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of the Treasury has begun blocking even potential transactions with Russian entities. For example, Swiss-based Gunvor Group — which intended to acquire Lukoil International GmbH, the arm managing Lukoil’s overseas assets — was denied a license by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Following the decision, Gunvor’s management withdrew its acquisition proposal.

Meanwhile, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), fuel inventories rose sharply from –4.000 million barrels to +6.500 million barrels, while U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data also showed a jump from –6.858 million barrels to +5.202 million barrels. Additionally, CME Group reported that trading volume yesterday stood at 639,000 contracts — lower than the 714,000–708,000 range seen at the start of the week.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the instrument is retreating from the resistance line of the descending channel, with dynamic boundaries between 62.00 and 54.00.

Technical indicators continue to signal selling pressure: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain slightly below the signal line, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram is forming corrective bars near the zero level.

Resistance levels: 60.70, 64.20.

Support levels: 58.20, 55.00.

WTI Crude Oil Chart

Trading Scenarios and WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Short positions may be opened after a decline and consolidation below 58.20, with a target of 55.00 and a stop-loss at 60.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after growth and consolidation above 60.70, with a target of 64.20 and a stop-loss at 59.00.

Scenario

Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 58.20
Take Profit 55.00
Stop Loss 60.00
Key Levels 55.00, 58.20, 60.70, 64.20

Alternative Scenario

Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 60.70
Take Profit 64.20
Stop Loss 59.00
Key Levels 55.00, 58.20, 60.70, 64.20