Gold Price Forecast 2026: Morgan Stanley Targets $4,500 per Ounce
Morgan Stanley Gold Price Forecast for 2026: Target of $4,500 per ounce by mid-next year
Morgan Stanley Gold Price Forecast for 2026: Target of $4,500 per ounce by mid-next year
The global corrective trend in metal prices continues: this week, prices once again returned to levels slightly below 2200.00.
XAU/USD prices have resumed their upward move, supported by geopolitical and monetary factors, and are currently holding near 4465.00 within a long-term bullish trend after a brief correction.
Prices for benchmark Brent Crude Oil are correcting within a downward trend, holding just below the 61.00 level following the launch of the military operation dubbed “Midnight Hammer” against Venezuela. Several major media outlets, including CBS News, reported that U.S. President Donald Trump personally ordered strikes on civilian and military targets in Caracas, as well as the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. They are now expected to stand trial in New York on charges related to narco-terrorism.
Prices for benchmark Brent crude oil are correcting within a downward trend and are currently holding slightly below the $62 per barrel level.
During the morning session, WTI Crude Oil prices are showing mixed performance, consolidating near 57.80 and close to the highs posted on December 11. On the previous day, prices received a strong bullish impulse driven by a weaker US dollar amid growing expectations of a Federal Reserve policy easing cycle.
Brent Crude Oil prices are trading within a long-term downward trend, forming a corresponding channel. Last week, quotes reached May lows near 58.55 but failed to break lower and corrected upward. The price is currently close to 59.37 (Murray level [–1/8]); a firm move below this level would confirm further downside toward 56.25 (Murray level [–2/8]) and 53.12 (Murray level [–2/8], D1). For bulls, the key resistance zone is seen at 64.00–65.62 (the middle Bollinger Band and Murray level [1/8]). A breakout above this area would allow prices to exit the channel through its upper boundary and rise toward 71.87 (Murray level [3/8]) and 75.00 (Murray level [4/8]). However, this scenario currently appears less likely in the near term.
The XAU/USD pair continues to gain ground, holding near fresh record highs around 4400.0 as the market waits for new directional catalysts. However, most investors are expected to step aside this week ahead of the Christmas holidays. Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), the United States will release the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September, which is being published with a delay due to the recent record government shutdown. At the same time, traders continue to assess the likelihood of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve in the coming year. As a reminder, in December the regulator cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, as expected, and maintained its forward guidance, projecting only one additional 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026. Market participants, however, are pricing in at least two rate reductions under the current economic conditions.
Oil prices continue their corrective movement, trading below the 56.00 level this week as the market reacts to the current fundamental environment.
Forex traders are preparing for the upcoming corporate earnings season, but interest rates in major global economies remain the primary focus. After strengthening in August 2025, the precious metals sector entered a pause as investment flows were reallocated. Silver and platinum benefited the most from this shift; however, gold’s potential as a core safe-haven asset remains intact, and the key factors supporting the broader market are still in place.
During the morning session, benchmark WTI Crude Oil prices are posting a modest rebound, consolidating near the 55.80 level while remaining close to April lows amid continued weakness in the US dollar.
Prices for benchmark Brent Crude Oil are holding slightly below the 60.00 level, as the market continues to correct lower. Analysts attribute the pullback to falling prices for crude purchased by major global importers.
Commodities analysis looks at what drives the prices of raw materials like oil, gold, or wheat. Fundamentals mean supply and demand, production levels, weather, and geopolitics. Technicals come from the charts — trends, support and resistance zones, trading volume, and repeating patterns. By combining both, traders can gauge risk, spot opportunities, and decide when it makes sense to buy or sell.