AUD/USD Falls as Weak Australian Data Pressures the Aussie

In October, Australia’s services PMI stood at 52.5 points versus the forecast of 53.1, while the S&P Global composite index fell to 52.1 from 52.4 the previous month (expected 52.6). The slowdown was also confirmed by Australian Industry Group (AiG) data: the construction sector index dropped from 12.3 to –7.1, and the manufacturing index fell from –13.2 to –22.0. Meanwhile, most of September’s trade balance growth was driven by non-monetary gold sales — exports increased by 7.9% (+3.26 billion AUD), and imports rose by 1.1% (+429 million AUD), mainly due to capital goods purchases. As a result, the trade surplus widened from 1.11 billion AUD to 3.94 billion AUD, confirming the economy’s resilience despite global trade challenges and increasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain its current monetary settings at least until early next year. Earlier, RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that monetary policy remains close to neutral — neither stimulating nor restricting the economy.

The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is holding near 99.60 points. Investors continue to assess the prospects for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which have slightly increased following the Challenger, Gray & Christmas job-cut report showing the largest monthly employment reduction in over 20 years — 153,070 layoffs compared to 54,060 previously — largely due to the growing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the price is correcting lower, once again approaching the ascending channel’s support line, with dynamic boundaries at 0.6680–0.6450.

Technical indicators that recently turned downward continue to signal a sell trend: the fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are widening below the signal line, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram remains in the negative zone, forming several new red bars.

Support levels: 0.6420, 0.6300.

Resistance levels: 0.6520, 0.6620.

Trading Scenarios and AUD/USD Forecast

If the decline continues and the price consolidates below the 0.6420 support level, short positions may be considered with a target at 0.6300 and a stop-loss at 0.6500. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Alternatively, if a corrective rebound continues and the price secures above the 0.6520 resistance, long positions will become relevant with a target at 0.6620 and a stop-loss at 0.6460.