Experts warn that the Swiss government may need to make significant concessions—such as expanding local market access to expensive U.S. goods like seafood and citrus—to avoid further sanctions. The forex market is closely watching these developments, as any policy change could trigger new volatility in USD/CHF trading.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (USDX) hovers at 97.20 as the 90-day exemption from most U.S. tariffs expires. President Donald Trump extended the deadline to August 1, allowing more time for ongoing trade talks. This move adds complexity to the USD/CHF forex forecast as traders gauge the impact on both the franc and the dollar. Looking ahead, investors are focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a 95.3% probability of rates holding steady. However, the minutes from June’s FOMC meeting—set for release today—may offer new insights for forex traders.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance
On the daily chart, USD/CHF remains below the resistance of its descending channel (0.8050–0.7400). Technical indicators reinforce a bearish outlook: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator remain below the signal line, and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram is in negative territory—consistent with forex analytics consensus.
- Resistance: 0.8040, 0.8250
- Support: 0.7890, 0.7680
USD/CHF Trading Scenarios and Weekly Forecast
- Sell Stop: Enter after a break below 0.7890, targeting 0.7680, with a stop-loss at 0.7970. (Forex scenario: 7+ days)
- Buy Stop: Enter after a break above 0.8040, targeting 0.8250, with a stop-loss at 0.7950.
Key levels: 0.7680, 0.7890, 0.8040, 0.8250
USD/CHF technical analysis and forecastLeading Forex Analyst Consensus
According to top forex analytics platforms, the outlook for USD/CHF is bearish in the near term as SNB interventions are expected to intensify. Analysts at ForexLive and DailyFX suggest watching for a deeper correction toward 0.7680 unless trade tensions with the U.S. ease or the SNB signals a shift in monetary policy. Any dovish surprise from the FOMC minutes could inject additional volatility, but the broad consensus points to further franc strength and pressure on the pair.