Inflation Data in Focus: Fed Policy in the Balance
At 14:30 (GMT+2), June CPI figures from the US are expected to show acceleration: monthly inflation may rise from 0.1% to 0.3%, and annual inflation from 2.4% to 2.6%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is also forecast to increase from 0.1% to 0.3% month-over-month and from 2.8% to 2.9% annually.
If the data aligns with expectations, it could reinforce the Federal Reserve’s inclination to maintain its benchmark rate in the 4.25–4.50% range, despite political pressure from the Trump administration. Market participants now anticipate rate cuts beginning in September, with two or three 25 bps cuts projected by year-end.
Tariff Tensions and Japan’s Economic Outlook
Trade policy remains a key risk factor. President Trump recently extended the tariff moratorium deadline to August 1, while issuing formal notifications to trading partners—Japan among the first—about potential 30% import tariffs unless deals are finalized. After seven rounds of talks yielded no results, analysts warn that a failure to reach consensus could destabilize Japan’s export sector and exacerbate economic strain.
Recent Japanese macro data had limited impact on the yen. Industrial production declined by 0.1% vs. forecasts of +0.5%, and machinery orders fell by 0.6%. Capacity utilization, however, rose to 2.0%, and the non-manufacturing services index beat expectations, increasing to 0.6% versus forecasts of 0.1%.
Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Price Structure and Signals
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are widening moderately, reflecting volatility expansion. The MACD remains above its signal line, confirming sustained buying pressure. The Stochastic oscillator is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a risk of short-term pullback if momentum stalls.
- Resistance levels: 148.00, 148.64, 149.09, 150.00
- Support levels: 147.17, 146.00, 145.00, 144.00
Trading Scenarios
Bullish Setup: A BUY STOP can be placed at 148.00, targeting 149.09, with a stop-loss at 147.40. Suggested duration: 1–2 days.
Bearish Alternative: If price rejects resistance, a SELL STOP may be triggered below 147.15, targeting 146.00, with a stop-loss at 147.80.