Trading activity remains elevated at the beginning of the week, while oil prices have stayed above the 100.00 mark for an extended period. Brent ended Monday's session near 108.41 before rising toward 110.00 today, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf. Attacks by Yemen's Houthi forces on Saudi Arabia's oil and military infrastructure have intensified. On Monday, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree announced six operations targeting Saudi facilities, including the Shaybah oil field, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Abha International Airport, Khamis Mushait Air Base and radar installations in the Al-Hisn and Al-Rahma areas. The group also claimed attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu, although the extent of the reported damage has not been independently confirmed. Meanwhile, according to the Financial Times, Houthi forces have surrounded Taiz, Yemen's third-largest city, cutting key transport routes and increasing pressure on the internationally recognised government, which operates from Aden. These developments add to the supply concerns discussed in our previous Brent oil forecast.
Today at 22:30 (GMT+2), the American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly crude oil inventory report. Following last week's substantial decline of 11.120 million barrels, the source forecast points to a smaller inventory draw of around 1.300 million barrels. Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish its corresponding figures. Analysts expect crude inventories to decline by approximately 1.100 million barrels, compared with the previous decrease of 8.557 million barrels. Trading activity remains high at the beginning of the week, with market participation approaching the levels recorded in the previous period. According to the CME Group trading figures cited in the source material, approximately 928.0K futures contracts and 192.0K options contracts were recorded on October 16, compared with a September average of around 160.0K options contracts.
Support and resistance levels
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving higher, remaining slightly above the support line of the broad ascending channel with boundaries at 102.00–117.00.
Technical indicators are strengthening their buy signal: the fast exponential moving averages (EMAs) of the Alligator indicator remain above the slow ones, with the gap between them widening, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram is forming corrective bars in positive territory.
Support levels: 104.60, 97.20.
Resistance levels: 108.60, 114.30.
Brent Crude Oil Trading Scenarios and Price Forecast
Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 108.60, with a target at 114.30. Stop-loss: 106.00. Estimated implementation period: 7 days or more. Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 104.60, with a target at 97.20. Stop-loss: 107.00.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 108.60 |
| Take Profit | 114.30 |
| Stop Loss | 106.00 |
| Key Levels | 97.20, 104.60, 108.60, 114.30 |
Alternative Scenario
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 104.60 |
| Take Profit | 97.20 |
| Stop Loss | 107.00 |
| Key Levels | 97.20, 104.60, 108.60, 114.30 |
