Forex Market Review: Dollar Firms, German Ifo Rises
United States of America. The US dollar is strengthening against the pound and the yen, while showing mixed performance against the euro.
United States of America. The US dollar is strengthening against the pound and the yen, while showing mixed performance against the euro.
Prices for benchmark Brent crude oil are correcting within a downward trend and are currently holding slightly below the $62 per barrel level.
Amid a weaker US dollar and strong macroeconomic data from the euro area, the EUR/USD pair is trading within a corrective trend near the 1.1790 level.
EUR/USD. The European currency is strengthening against the US dollar, extending the upward momentum seen at the start of the week. The pair is testing the 1.1790 level for an upside breakout, reaching fresh local highs last seen on September 24.
United States. The US dollar continues to weaken against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen, remaining under pressure from a combination of macroeconomic and political factors.
EUR/USD. The euro is gaining against the US dollar, extending the bullish impulse formed a day earlier. The pair is testing the 1.1775 area for an upside breakout, supported by expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to ease policy in the near term.
The AUD/USD pair is correcting within an uptrend near 0.6667, supported by renewed weakness in the US dollar.
During the morning session, WTI Crude Oil prices are showing mixed performance, consolidating near 57.80 and close to the highs posted on December 11. On the previous day, prices received a strong bullish impulse driven by a weaker US dollar amid growing expectations of a Federal Reserve policy easing cycle.
The GBP/USD pair is gaining ground, consolidating near the early-October local highs and testing the 1.3484 level for an upside breakout. Market activity remains subdued as many investors gradually head into the Christmas holiday period. Still, volatility has been relatively elevated at the start of the week after key macroeconomic data was released in the UK. In particular, investors and FX traders noted that the UK economy maintained its prior growth pace of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year in Q3. However, momentum could slow as early as Q4 as conditions across global trading venues deteriorate. For example, UK manufacturers are facing high import tariffs not only from the US but also from the EU.
The euro is gaining ground against the US dollar, extending the bullish momentum formed a day earlier. The EUR/USD pair is testing the 1.1775 level on a potential upside breakout, supported by expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to ease monetary policy in the near term. At its meeting завершившемся last Thursday, the regulator left the key interest rate unchanged at 2.15%. At the same time, the ECB revised most of its forecasts upward: economic growth is now expected at 1.4% this year, to slow to 1.2% in 2026, and then reaccelerate to 1.4% in 2027. Inflation projections stand at 2.1%, 1.9% and 1.8% respectively, while core inflation excluding energy and food is seen at 2.4% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026. These improved outlooks have provided modest support to the euro, although downside risks remain elevated amid concerns over global competition and protectionist policies, particularly from the United States.
United States of America The US dollar is losing ground against its main competitors — the euro, the pound sterling, and the yen.
Brent Crude Oil prices are trading within a long-term downward trend, forming a corresponding channel. Last week, quotes reached May lows near 58.55 but failed to break lower and corrected upward. The price is currently close to 59.37 (Murray level [–1/8]); a firm move below this level would confirm further downside toward 56.25 (Murray level [–2/8]) and 53.12 (Murray level [–2/8], D1). For bulls, the key resistance zone is seen at 64.00–65.62 (the middle Bollinger Band and Murray level [1/8]). A breakout above this area would allow prices to exit the channel through its upper boundary and rise toward 71.87 (Murray level [3/8]) and 75.00 (Murray level [4/8]). However, this scenario currently appears less likely in the near term.
The EUR/GBP pair finished Friday near 0.8755, slipping 0.06% after a volatile close to the week. Sterling initially found support following the Bank of England’s 25-basis-point rate cut, but that strength faded as investors reassessed the broader message behind the decision.
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