Forex Market Review: Dollar Firms, German Ifo Rises
United States of America. The US dollar is strengthening against the pound and the yen, while showing mixed performance against the euro.
Markets
3
December
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By Sagar Dua - 278
EUR/USD. The euro is strengthening in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, once again testing the 1.1645 level, while overall market activity remains elevated as investors prepare for next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Forecasts suggest that the regulator will cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% and may also signal a willingness to further ease monetary policy if macroeconomic data remains weak. This was reiterated yesterday by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his speech at the George P. Shultz Memorial Lecture at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Powell noted that the Federal Reserve is currently prepared to loosen policy parameters, but final decisions will depend on incoming economic data and persistent inflation risks. The November labor market report will not be released this week due to the record-long government shutdown that lasted until mid-November. The data will appear only after the Fed meeting and will influence expectations for subsequent decisions.
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By Sagar Dua
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EUR/USD. The euro is gaining against the USD in the EUR/USD pair, once again testing the 1.1645 level, while overall market activity remains elevated as investors prepare for next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
2
December
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By Sagar Dua
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India’s currency opened the week under mild pressure, sending USD/INR to roughly 89.5997 (+0.27%). The exchange rate continues drifting higher, holding above the 89.00 threshold even as other carry currencies outperform.
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By Sagar Dua
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RTX Corp. shares, a major aerospace and defense manufacturer, have been correcting lower for the second month in a row against the backdrop of a long-term uptrend and are currently attempting to consolidate below 168.75 (Murray level [6/8]).
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By Sagar Dua
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EUR/USD. The euro is gaining ground against the US dollar, once again testing the 1.1610 level on an upside breakout attempt. Market activity remains restrained as investors and FX traders await fresh catalysts.
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By Sagar Dua
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The USD/CAD pair is consolidating around 1.3988 as the Canadian dollar maintains relatively stable dynamics on the back of supportive macroeconomic data.
1
December
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By Sagar Dua
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The GBP/USD pair is consolidating around 1.3230 as the US dollar remains broadly neutral, while the pound is supported by the newly presented budget from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves. According to the document, tax revenues are expected to rise by £26 billion, lifting the overall fiscal burden to roughly 38% of GDP. Analysts note that these measures could cool economic activity, but they also help narrow the budget deficit and strengthen investor confidence in government bonds — especially as consumer demand recovers and the labor market stabilizes.
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By Sagar Dua
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The German stock index DAX 40 is posting a moderate decline in the morning session, pulling back from the local highs of November 17 that were renewed at the end of last week. Investors are locking in part of their long profits ahead of today’s business-activity data release at 11:00 (GMT+2). Forecasts suggest that Germany’s manufacturing PMI from S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) will remain at 48.4 points, while the eurozone composite manufacturing reading is expected at 49.7 points. In recent months, industrial activity in the region has shown only modest growth, supported by higher government defense spending and infrastructure-modernization programs in Germany. However, analysts doubt that these initiatives will be enough to restore the EU’s budget surplus, as the bloc remains under pressure from intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers, the loss of cheap energy supplies from Russia, and trade restrictions introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump.
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By Sagar Dua
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The US dollar is showing a moderate decline in the USD/JPY pair, testing the 155.50 level for a downside breakout. Traders are focused on Japan’s macroeconomic data, which showed that capital expenditure growth slowed to 2.9% in Q3 from 7.6%, while analysts had expected 5.9%. Meanwhile, the Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI for November was revised slightly lower from 48.8 to 48.7. Investors are also assessing November consumer inflation figures released on Friday: the annual consumer price index for the Tokyo area eased from 2.8% to 2.7%, while the core gauge excluding food and energy remained at 2.8%.
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By Sagar Dua
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EUR/USD. The euro is trading mixed against the US dollar, holding close to last Friday’s closing levels. The pair is testing the 1.1600 area as traders wait for fresh market catalysts. At 11:00 (GMT+2), S&P Global will publish November manufacturing PMI data: forecasts suggest Germany’s S&P Global/HCOB manufacturing index will remain at 48.4, while the eurozone reading is expected at 49.7.
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By Sagar Dua
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The EUR/USD pair is moving in a corrective trend around 1.1599: eurozone data is not providing enough support for the euro, while the dynamics of the US dollar are still not strong enough to change the broader direction of trading.
29
November
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By Sagar Dua
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The US dollar is strengthening against the euro and the British pound, while weakening versus the Japanese yen.
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