At the start of the week, it briefly looked as though Solana might finally break above the $100 mark after a prolonged slump. The breakout, however, proved short-lived. At the time of writing, SOL is trading around $85. Despite the setback, the community remains cautiously optimistic — a significant update is on the way that could propel the network back to its previous highs.

Alpenglow: Solana's Answer to Its Core Problem

The update is called "Alpenglow," and it went live on its first testnet on Monday. Its primary goal is to tackle one of Solana's most persistent weaknesses: network stability. The blockchain has historically struggled with instability and outages — particularly during periods of high user activity. Alpenglow is designed to allow validators to reach consensus on valid transactions faster and more efficiently, improving not just speed but overall network robustness. The mainnet launch is currently scheduled for Q3 2026, but bullish signals are already beginning to surface.

Price Structure and Trend

Over the past 24 hours, SOL has oscillated between a high of $91.27 and a low of $85.52 across the last six 4-hour candles. The current closing price of $85.83 sits below the prior day's close of $89.05, indicating short-term selling pressure. Market capitalization stands at approximately $50.56 billion.

The price is trading well below the 20-period EMA at $90.55, and the pattern of lower highs and lower lows signals short-term weakness. Immediate support sits at $85.52, with a more significant zone at $83.23 (Fibonacci). Resistances are located at the EMA-20 (~$90.55) and $91.27. As long as price remains below the EMA, the outlook remains bearish.

Momentum Check

The RSI (14) stands at approximately 26.7 — firmly in oversold territory. The MACD histogram is showing accelerating downward pressure, confirming the negative price action.

Volatility and Risk

The Bollinger Band width currently measures around $8.62, signaling elevated volatility relative to the middle band. The market is in a tense consolidation/downtrend phase with a rising volatility trend. A breakout above $90.55 on volume could trigger a counter-move; a break below $83.23 would open the door to further downside and increased volatility.

Short-Term Scenarios

Neutral Scenario (40%) — Price continues to range between $83.23 and $90.00. The RSI stabilizes above the oversold zone, price holds above $85.50, and Bollinger Bands gradually contract. Key support at EMA-20 ($90.55) and Fibonacci support at $83.23.

Bullish Scenario (15%) — Price reclaims the EMA-20 at $90.55 and breaks the $91.27 resistance with conviction. Supported by rising volume and an RSI above 50, a trend reversal could be confirmed, opening the way toward the recent high at $93.16 or even the $98 area.

Bearish Scenario (45%) — Price loses the critical Fibonacci support at $83.23 and continues to slide. If the RSI remains below 30 and the Bollinger Bands expand downward, selling pressure would intensify further. In this case, SOL could initially fall into the $70–$82 zone.