Meta is reportedly developing its own prediction market platform. According to The New York Times, the project is being developed internally under the name “Arena.” Users would be able to place bets on the outcomes of political, economic, or social events. Unlike platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi, predictions would initially be made using points rather than real money.
According to The New York Times, Mark Zuckerberg is personally driving the project forward. A development team is reportedly already working on its implementation.
Polymarket as a model
With this project, Meta would enter a market that has not only grown significantly in recent years but has also attracted substantial media attention. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are now recording high user numbers and trading volumes, partly due to the ongoing FIFA World Cup.
Other companies from the financial and gambling sectors are also exploring their own prediction market offerings. Meta has previously made several attempts to enter new digital business areas. In 2019, the company introduced its own cryptocurrency, Libra, but later abandoned the project after regulatory pushback. The integration of NFTs into Instagram and the large-scale metaverse project were also later discontinued or significantly scaled back.
Recently, the prediction market sector suffered another blow to its reputation after The Wall Street Journal published an investigation alleging that Polymarket paid dozens of content creators to post videos featuring simulated trades and fabricated winnings in order to promote the platform. According to the investigation, more than 1,100 videos were analysed, and much of the content was filmed on replicas closely resembling the Polymarket website rather than on the real platform. Some videos also displayed profits or winning trades that had never existed in reality. After the allegations became public, Polymarket said it would review all of its promotional activities.
Legal pressure is also increasing worldwide. South Korea has launched an investigation into Polymarket users over alleged participation in illegal gambling; Japan has issued a risk warning regarding the platform; and Spain has recently ordered internet providers to block access to Polymarket and Kalshi due to unlicensed operations. In India, Kalshi has also stopped offering services after the government tightened regulation of the prediction market sector. Kalshi has additionally begun requiring users in certain sensitive markets to disclose their workplace in an effort to prevent insider trading, showing that the control of confidential information is becoming a top priority across the industry.
Conclusion
Meta’s potential entry into prediction markets could significantly broaden the audience for this fast-growing segment, especially if Arena is integrated with the company’s existing social platforms. A points-based model may help Meta test demand while avoiding some of the regulatory risks associated with real-money prediction markets.
