In line with market expectations, the U.S. Federal Reserve under the chairmanship of its new head Kevin Warsh kept the interest rate in the 3.50–3.75% range for the fourth consecutive time, with the decision made unanimously. However, market participants focused on the tightening of financial authorities’ rhetoric and the change in the “dot plot,” which turned out to be significantly more hawkish than previously expected. Thus, the June chart excluded the possibility of lowering borrowing costs this year, despite earlier forecasts for an adjustment of –25 basis points. The accompanying statements also noted that economic activity in the United States is expanding at a solid pace despite geopolitical uncertainty, particularly related to the situation in the Middle East, while inflationary pressure remains persistently elevated relative to the 2.0% target, reflecting the continuing supply imbalance in energy markets. Thus, price dynamics are viewed by the regulator as a persistent factor, despite the partial stabilization of oil quotes after the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran was reached. The cryptocurrency market reacted with sell-offs in digital assets: BTC lost 1.2% in value, while major altcoins fell by 2.0–3.0%.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives agreed to advance the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which establishes a ban on the Federal Reserve issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) until December 31, 2030, as well as any “substantially similar” instruments, while separately preserving the legal status of private stablecoins and their further development. The legislative initiative was included in a broader package of programs to reform housing affordability, which allowed it to move through Congress faster after previous stages of resistance: it received support from the Republican majority and Donald Trump, who had earlier signed an executive order aimed against the introduction of a digital dollar, citing risks to financial stability and citizens’ privacy. In turn, the People’s Bank of China stated the need for a more thorough study of the impact of stablecoins on cross-border settlements. According to Wang Xin, head of the regulator’s Research Bureau, international payment infrastructure should become safer, more neutral, and more efficient, while interaction between central bank systems and retail payment networks should become more coordinated. At the same time, he emphasized the need for a “cautious and step-by-step” study of the potential of new financial instruments, as well as stronger coordination between regulators in different countries. Despite technological activity, mainland China maintains strict restrictions on cryptocurrencies: since 2021, mining has been banned, the participation of financial institutions in digital asset operations has been restricted, and cryptocurrency transactions have officially been recognized as illegal. At the same time, a shift toward the digital yuan and regulated bank transfers is being observed. According to Reuters, the International Digital Yuan Operations Center, launched in September last year, has already signed direct participation agreements with 26 financial institutions in Shanghai.
At the same time, CME Group, the operator of the world’s largest derivatives exchange, intends to file a lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over the approval of perpetual futures contracts. According to CME Group CEO Terrence Duffy, the claim will be based on the position that perpetual futures should be classified as swaps under the Dodd–Frank Act. Earlier, the regulator had already supported the launch of similar instruments for the Kalshi platform but took a neutral position on similar Coinbase products. Duffy is critical of the development of this segment, pointing to high leverage and increased risks for retail investors, comparing the current situation to the conditions that preceded the global financial crisis of 2008.
Meanwhile, asset manager BlackRock has listed the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (BITA) on the U.S. Nasdaq exchange, combining exposure to the spot price of BTC with an active covered call option-selling strategy. According to the description, it will be used to generate regular income with potentially reduced volatility while maintaining significant participation in the growth of the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Taken together, these factors create an environment of increased sensitivity to changes in liquidity and regulatory expectations. The Fear and Greed Index remains at “19” in the “extreme fear” zone, reflecting a phase of structural caution among market participants and the absence of sustainable drivers for a reversal of the downward trend in the short term.
