The firm notes that the main pressure is not so much geopolitical or regulatory, but directly affects bank profitability and the funding model behind low-cost lending. This is driven by a widening gap between what banks pay depositors and the yields that reserve-backed digital dollar issuers can earn.
According to Delphi Digital, the average savings rate stands at around 0.39%, while US Treasury yields range between 3.6% and 4.1%. This spread has long supported a simple but profitable banking model. However, if tokenized dollar issuers begin sharing a larger portion of these returns with users, traditional banks risk losing a cheap and stable deposit base.
A growing role in mainstream finance
Data from Delphi Digital shows that stablecoins have already moved beyond a niche segment of the crypto economy. In December, total supply exceeded $304 billion, equivalent to about 1.4% of US M2 money supply. At the same time, issuers hold approximately $133 billion in US Treasuries, making them among the largest holders of US government debt.
Moreover, monthly transaction volumes have already surpassed those of PayPal and Visa over the past year. This shifts the discussion from market size to functional relevance within the financial system.
Stablecoins are increasingly viewed as part of a new infrastructure layer for payments, liquidity management, and settlement. In this context, competition with banks is no longer theoretical — it depends on how users, platforms, and corporate treasuries choose to store and transfer value.
Why banks see a direct profit threat
The core issue for banks lies in margins. Their business model depends on attracting low-cost deposits and deploying them into higher-yield assets.
Stablecoin issuers, by contrast, operate differently: backed by cash or short-term Treasuries, they do not require an extensive branch network and can pass reserve yields more directly to users. According to Delphi Digital, this reduces the incentive to keep funds in low-yield bank accounts.
The firm previously noted that banks and card networks have long benefited from slow settlement processes and income generated from pooled balances. In contrast, digital dollar systems allow fintech and payment companies to capture a larger share of that value directly.
Policy debates are intensifying
The debate has already reached Washington. According to Reuters, the Clarity Act has faced resistance from banks, particularly due to provisions that would allow token issuers to offer rewards on balances.
Some estimates, including those from Standard Chartered, suggest that up to $500 billion could flow out of US bank deposits by 2028, with regional banks facing the greatest risks due to their reliance on deposit funding.
At the same time, the regulatory framework is strengthening. The GENIUS Act, signed on July 18, 2025, introduced federal requirements for stablecoin backing — 1:1 with cash, deposits, repos, or Treasuries with maturities of up to 93 days. This reinforces the perception of digital dollars as near-cash instruments for payments and liquidity management.
Profit first, but risks remain
Delphi Digital does not ignore the risks. A US Treasury report from March 2026 highlights exposure of digital assets to money laundering, sanctions evasion, terrorist financing, and cybercrime, including activity linked to North Korea.
Federal Reserve researchers also described such tokens as “run-able liabilities” following the USDC depeg episode during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, when $3.3 billion in reserves were revealed to be trapped.
Nevertheless, the report’s key conclusion remains unchanged: the primary transformation may not come from a crisis, but from a gradual shift of capital away from low-yield bank deposits into new forms of dollar storage that directly compete with the traditional banking model.
