The most important economic data of the week
The second trading week of September begins with the release of U.S. producer price data on Wednesday. In the second half of the week, the European Central Bank (ECB) announces its policy rate on Thursday, alongside the latest U.S. consumer price data. To close out the week on Friday, the University of Michigan publishes preliminary readings on consumer sentiment and U.S. households’ inflation expectations.
Producer prices midweek
Wednesday, 10 September 2025: At 2:30 p.m. (CET), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest producer price data for August. In July, producer prices rose 0.9 percent month-over-month, well above the 0.2 percent consensus and the highest reading since July 2022. For August, analysts expect 0.3 percent. If the forecast is again clearly exceeded, it would be another sign that the sharp increases in import tariffs are persistently pushing up U.S. companies’ production costs. Firms would increasingly be forced to pass higher input costs on to customers. The Federal Reserve could, despite a September rate cut, keep overall policy tight and remain in a wait-and-see stance. Investors would likely interpret rising producer prices as bearish, which could weigh on Bitcoin and especially the altcoin sector. If, however, the forecast is met or undershot, this could reinforce the Fed’s inclination to ease policy in light of mounting labor-market strains—supportive for U.S. equities and, in particular, risk-on assets including crypto.
ECB rate decision and U.S. consumer prices on Thursday
Thursday, 11 September 2025: Early afternoon, the European Central Bank announces its fifth policy decision of the year at 2:15 p.m. (CET). The key rate most recently remained unchanged at 2.15 percent. Markets likewise expect no additional rate cut this time. The flash inflation estimate for Europe most recently ticked up to 2.1 percent, slightly above expectations and the highest since April 2025. Given the new tariff agreement with the U.S. and the hard-to-predict effects on consumer prices, the ECB may prefer to stand pat for now. Whether President Lagarde would consider monetary easing via quantitative easing (QE) to cushion negative effects on European firms amid the tariff dispute remains unclear. Investors should therefore focus on the press conference at 2:45 p.m. (CET). If the ECB unexpectedly cuts the key rate by 25 basis points, EUR/USD could initially weaken, potentially affecting risk assets like Bitcoin.
U.S. inflation data in the spotlight
At 2:30 p.m. (CET), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the latest consumer price data for August. In July, headline CPI settled at 2.7 percent, slightly below the 2.8 percent consensus year-over-year. For August, analysts expect a renewed uptick to 2.9 percent. If the forecast is met or inflation comes in even higher, this would be the next warning signal for U.S. policymakers and markets. While core PCE most recently aligned with expectations, it reached 2.9 percent—the highest since December 2023. The probability of multiple rate cuts by year-end could therefore recede despite last week’s weak labor data. Increased profit-taking on U.S. markets could follow in an already challenging September, weighing on crypto as well. Conversely, if CPI undershoots and holds at the prior month’s level—or surprises to the downside—the Fed’s room to maneuver would widen, potentially adding fuel to the uptrend in U.S. equities.
Preliminary Michigan inflation expectations wrap up the week
Friday, 12 September 2025: At 4:00 p.m. (CET), the University of Michigan releases preliminary readings on U.S. consumer sentiment and households’ 12-month inflation expectations. Final August sentiment, published on 29 August, came in at 58.2, missing consensus (58.8) for a second straight month. If the conservative 58.0 estimate is missed again, it would be another sign of sustained deterioration in consumer confidence—potentially pressuring U.S. financial markets and, in turn, crypto. If the estimates are clearly exceeded, a bottoming may be in place, benefiting stocks and crypto. At the same time, updated 12-month inflation expectations will be published. These measure the percentage change in prices U.S. households expect over the next year. The final figure most recently rose to 4.8 percent, well above July’s 4.5 percent. Fears of higher prices in the wake of U.S. tariffs have thus increased. If the preliminary figure meets or tops forecasts—as last time—U.S. equities and crypto could react negatively. Should inflation expectations decline, especially below last month’s final reading, a friendlier market reaction would be conceivable.