As recently as last Wednesday, Bitcoin climbed to $98,000, giving holders hope that the three-month period of weakness was coming to an end. However, signs are now mounting that the move could reverse lower. Above all, rising geopolitical uncertainty is weighing on the crypto market: it is supporting precious metals, but not digital assets.

In early trading, gold surged to as high as $4,714, while silver peaked at $94.6. While Bitcoin has lost around 11% year-on-year, gold and silver have posted gains of 72% and 209%, respectively.

Another worrying signal is that Bitcoin has recorded its lowest Coinbase Premium Gap (CPG) in a year. This suggests strong selling pressure from U.S. investors relative to global markets. The low CPG formed during a U.S. market holiday, when spot crypto ETFs were inactive and liquidity was thin. Under these conditions, large holders (“whales”) likely liquidated significant portions of their holdings.

“Options markets are now showing a clear downside bias, with a 30% probability that BTC will fall below $80,000 by June 26, compared with a 19% probability that it rises above $120,000 over the same period,” warned Dr. Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Derive.xyz, in a comment to CoinDesk.

The Fear and Greed Index has also cooled sharply, dropping to 32 points and returning to the “fear” zone. According to this sentiment gauge, there is little sign of optimism in the crypto market at present.

Alongside Bitcoin—which, after a 1.9% daily decline, is trading around $90,920—almost all major altcoins are also falling. Ethereum is down 2.7% to $3,120, XRP has slipped 0.6% to $1.94, and Solana has dropped 2.1% to $130. The only notable outlier is Canton, an RWA-focused crypto project, whose price jumped 11.7% to $0.124.

The “digital gold” narrative is increasingly being called into question. Canadian billionaire Frank Giustra notes: “Amid uncertainty around Greenland, gold prices have surged, while Bitcoin has fallen by a comparable percentage.” In his view, gold remains a safe-haven asset, whereas Bitcoin should be treated as a risk asset.