Bitcoin analyst PlanC criticized the widespread belief that, just like in previous cycles, Bitcoin will automatically reach its all-time high in Q4. According to him, anyone who believes that “doesn’t understand statistics.” He compared the logic to a coin toss: just because tails came up three times in a row, it doesn’t mean the fourth toss will also land on tails. With only three past cycles, there’s no solid probability to rely on.

PlanC argues there is no longer any fundamental reason for Bitcoin to peak in Q4 2025. The growing influence of treasury companies and ETF inflows has weakened the historical reliance on the halving cycle. While Q4 has indeed been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter on average since 2013—with returns of about 85%—PlanC stresses that this pattern is largely psychological.

Meanwhile, some analysts like Steven McClurg (Canary Capital) still expect Bitcoin to reach between $140,000 and $150,000 in 2025, while others like Matt Hougan (Bitwise) believe the bull market could extend into 2026. Well-known crypto voices such as Arthur Hayes and Joe Burnett even see Bitcoin climbing as high as $250,000 by year-end.

Earlier, FORECK.INFO reported on analysts predicting Bitcoin could climb to $160,000 by year-end despite a recent 12% correction.