In times of political instability, one asset reliably rallies: gold. On Friday, the precious metal once again set a new all-time high—nearly $4,400 per ounce. Bitcoin, by contrast, is struggling to hold the $100,000 mark.
The two assets are moving in opposite directions even though both are often framed as “safe havens.” Why? Both are scarce, both pay no yield, and both are seen as hedges against inflation. For years, the idea that “Bitcoin is gold 2.0” sounded convincing. That comparison dates back to Bitcoin’s early days, when the crypto community leaned on a simple narrative to explain it: capped supply, value preservation, inflation resistance.
Yet scarcity alone doesn’t make something a safe haven. Gold has served as a store of value for millennia; Bitcoin has just over a decade of market history. The data reflect that difference.
Data puncture the myth
Fresh research from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) finds that between 2015 and 2025 the correlation of monthly returns for gold and Bitcoin was just 0.04—essentially negligible. In other words, their prices move largely independently.
Moreover, DIW notes that Bitcoin correlates positively with equities—about 0.28 with the DAX and 0.33 with the S&P 500. When stocks fall, Bitcoin usually falls too. Gold, by contrast, often behaves inversely in crises, rising when risk assets weaken.
Analysts at Swiss private bank Maerki Baumann reach the same conclusion: any long-term link between gold and Bitcoin is weak, while Bitcoin is far more responsive to growth indices like the Nasdaq or Russell 2000—typical for a risk-on asset.
When markets tremble, gold remains the go-to hedge, supported by central-bank buying and centuries of trust. Bitcoin simply isn’t there yet.
Meanwhile, analyst “Merlijn the Trader” observed that the M2 global money supply was surging, gold is ripping, but Bitcoin is sleeping.
“This divergence never lasts, liquidity always finds risk, [and] the catch-up rally will be brutal,” he said.
BITCOIN IS LAGGING BEHIND GLOBAL LIQUIDITY AND GOLD.
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) October 16, 2025
M2 is surging.
Gold is ripping.
Bitcoin is sleeping.
This divergence never lasts.
Liquidity always finds risk.
The catch-up rally will be brutal. pic.twitter.com/VQXAqhUUEH
Exceptions that prove the rule
There have been stretches when the two did move similarly—most notably from 2022 to 2024—when both assets tracked each other reasonably well.
But that sync was driven not by a deep structural tie, but by an exceptional backdrop: high inflation, a weaker dollar, loose monetary policy, and abundant liquidity. In that period, both gold and Bitcoin were treated as shields against purchasing-power loss—the former time-tested, the latter a rising digital contender.
In early 2025, the picture flipped. Gold kept climbing on geopolitics and intensified central-bank buying, while Bitcoin came under pressure. The “digital gold” narrative lost shine and the assets diverged.
Bitcoin: tomorrow’s safe haven?
Investors’ crisis-time preference for gold also stems from Bitcoin’s higher volatility. Still, with greater institutional participation, clearer regulation, and stronger market infrastructure, Bitcoin could mature—becoming less volatile, more liquid, and better integrated into the macro landscape.
The rise of ETFs and professional custody is already broadening the investor base and reshaping trading behavior. The deeper Bitcoin plugs into traditional financial rails, the more likely it is to behave like an established macro asset—even in stress.
Even DIW cautions: correlations aren’t laws of nature; they’re products of market conditions—and conditions change. If institutions increasingly treat Bitcoin as a long-term store of value rather than a speculative toy, its behavior could gradually converge toward gold’s.
Should Bitcoin one day truly earn the “digital gold” label, it won’t be by rhetoric, but by maturity—and the trust the market grants over time.
