The crypto market typically finishes the year strong. Historically, Bitcoin has delivered around 50% average returns in Q4, but this time looks different: price action is weak, sentiment is gloomy, and even “Uptober” (the usually strong October) disappointed. Still, Michael Saylor hasn’t given up on a powerful year-end rally.
The Strategy founder expects a sharp rise in the coming weeks—perhaps out of necessity, as his leverage-heavy, debt-fueled model has increasingly eroded investor confidence. MSTR shares have been, as one analyst put it, “spooky” since the start of the year, and some warn the bubble around Strategy could be close to popping.
Investor anxiety deepened after Thursday’s tariff meeting between the two presidents produced no substantive statement on import duties, adding uncertainty to global and digital-asset markets.
Saylor’s forecasts and Bitcoin’s trajectory
Asked by CNBC where Bitcoin could head, Saylor was, unsurprisingly, confident it would keep rising. He said the crypto industry is in a “blossom phase”—politically and regulatorily legitimized by the Trump administration and increasingly intertwined with TradFi. He suggested Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2025. Against Arthur Hayes, Adam Back, and Tim Draper’s $250,000 calls, Saylor’s estimate is almost conservative. Even so, it would require roughly a $40,000 climb in just two months.
Seasonally, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market tend to strengthen into year-end: if BTC repeats its ~47% average Q4 return, price would approach $160,000. But recent conditions suggest otherwise—after a weak October, Bitcoin is struggling to hold $110,000, and the Fear & Greed Index has slipped back into “fear.” On Polymarket, views are split: most expect $130,000, 24% see $140,000, but just as many bet on a drop to $90,000. Saylor’s $150,000 scenario currently has only a 13% implied probability.
Crypto market: hopes of a reversal on improving trade signals
Investors and analysts are banking on a trend shift thanks to positive headlines around trade talks. In their view, October’s drop was largely driven by short-term technicals and hasn’t derailed the longer-term uptrend in digital assets.
The Kobeissi Letter notes that the underlying trend remains bullish and that a U.S.–China trade deal is increasingly likely.
In the following weeks, officials from both countries notably softened their rhetoric, signaling de-escalation and readiness to move toward concrete agreements.
Trump has shifted course and confirmed he will meet China’s President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Seoul, South Korea, on Friday.
Strategy’s challenges
A new Polymarket contract also asked: “Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly expectations?”—the odds had fallen to 16% by the time of the report. That mirrors waning confidence in the company: its stock is down about 7% year-to-date, while Bitcoin is up roughly 15%. The usual “leverage effect” of MSTR as a BTC proxy hasn’t materialized; direct BTC exposure has been far more rewarding. Preferred shares have held up better so far, but for how long?
Gold advocate economist Peter Schiff noted that despite the NASDAQ’s new highs, MSTR is 48% below its record, and Bitcoin remains 10% under its ATH. He argues BTC’s failure to make new highs alongside tech and gold points to an imminent “bubble pop.” Schiff has made similar claims since 2013, likening Bitcoin to the 17th-century tulip mania.
Pressure on the business model
Strategy’s model depends on continually raising new capital and converting it into BTC, increasing coins per share. Even for Saylor, maintaining that pace is getting tougher: purchases are shrinking, and recurring equity issuance dilutes existing holders. Schiff calls MSTR “the most overvalued stock in the MSCI World Index”—and neither strong nor weak stock performance will likely change his mind. Still, despite the criticism, a powerful year-end rally would benefit not only Bitcoin holders, but Michael Saylor himself.
