AUD/USD Slips to 0.6630 as Australia Jobs Data Disappoints and Fed Cuts Rates

Seasonally adjusted employment declined by 5.4K after rising by 26.5K the previous month, while analysts had expected an increase of 22.0K. Full-time employment fell by 40.9K after adding 63.6K in July, while part-time employment increased by 35.5K after a previous decline of 37.1K. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, as expected, while the participation rate edged down from 67.0% to 66.8%. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter stated that Australia’s economic outlook is currently balanced, with both upside and downside risks, but noted signs of improving consumer spending. According to her, core inflation is approaching the middle of the 2.0–3.0% target range, and the RBA’s goal remains keeping the economy close to full employment. GDP has also accelerated at the fastest annual pace in nearly two years, driven by recovering consumer spending, while the monthly CPI index in July spiked to 2.8%, the highest annual reading this year. Investors viewed this as a reason against cutting borrowing costs this month, although futures still imply an 80% probability of monetary easing in November.

Traders are also assessing the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting. As expected, the Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. During the press conference, officials indicated that a larger 50 bps cut had little support among FOMC members. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation pressures remain somewhat elevated. Updated economic projections released the same day show that the U.S. economy is expected to grow 1.6% in 2025, up from the June forecast of 1.4%, 1.8% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027 (previously 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively).

Support and Resistance Levels

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are attempting to flatten out, with the price channel widening and opening the way for potential new highs. MACD has shifted downward, generating a sell signal as the histogram moved below the signal line. The Stochastic indicator is pointing lower and currently sits in the mid-range, signaling enough potential for further bearish pressure in the short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6644, 0.6668, 0.6700, 0.6732.

Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6570, 0.6530, 0.6500.

Trading Scenarios and AUD/USD Forecast

Short positions may be opened after a confident break below 0.6600, targeting 0.6500. Stop-loss — 0.6644. Timeframe: 2–3 days.

A rebound from 0.6600 as support, followed by a breakout above 0.6644, may serve as a signal to open long positions targeting 0.6732. Stop-loss — 0.6600.