The US dollar, in turn, continues to strengthen. Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve brought borrowing costs to the 3.50–3.75% range in 2025, incoming macroeconomic data point to the resilience of the US economy, suggesting that the pause in further monetary easing may persist. In particular, the ISM Services PMI remains in expansion territory, while Federal Reserve officials, including Lisa Cook, continue to highlight ongoing inflation risks, restraining expectations of a near-term policy shift. Markets still assume that the next rate cut cycle may begin no earlier than June and only under favourable conditions. It is also worth noting that the traditional US labour market report is not being released today due to a brief federal government shutdown in early February, leaving investors to rely mainly on nonfarm employment data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), based on a survey of around 400.0 thousand business sources. The indicator showed job growth of just 22.0 thousand, more than twice below analysts’ expectations of 47.0 thousand. An additional negative signal came from weekly initial jobless claims, which rose from 209.0 thousand to 231.0 thousand for the week ending January 30, well above the preliminary estimate of 212.0 thousand.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands show a steady decline, with the price range narrowing, reflecting mixed short-term trading conditions. MACD is rising, maintaining a strong buy signal and remaining above the signal line. The Stochastic oscillator is hovering near its maximum values, indicating risks of short-term overbought conditions for the US dollar.

Resistance levels: 1.3724, 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3832.

Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3671, 1.3642, 1.3600.

USD/CAD chart

Trading scenarios and USD/CAD outlook

Short positions can be opened after a confident break below the 1.3671 level, with a target at 1.3600 and a stop-loss at 1.3700. Time horizon: 2–3 days.

A return of bullish momentum followed by a breakout above 1.3724 may signal new long positions targeting 1.3800. Stop-loss — 1.3690.

Scenario

Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry point 1.3670
Take Profit 1.3600
Stop Loss 1.3700
Key levels 1.3600, 1.3642, 1.3671, 1.3700, 1.3724, 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3832

Alternative scenario

Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry point 1.3725
Take Profit 1.3800
Stop Loss 1.3690
Key levels 1.3600, 1.3642, 1.3671, 1.3700, 1.3724, 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3832