S&P 500 Forecast: Index Pulls Back to 7,379 as Trump's Iran Warning and Rising Bond Yields Weigh on Sentiment

The post came after a meeting with senior members of the national security team, who were invited to the US leader's golf club in Virginia to discuss potential next steps for US armed forces. According to CNN, the Pentagon has prepared several plans including strikes on Iranian territory should Trump decide to resume military operations, with energy infrastructure among the key targets identified. While Iranian authorities have not issued official comments, the state news agency Mehr suggests the Republican administration is seeking "concessions it failed to obtain through war," adding that this could become an obstacle to continuing bilateral consultations. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Iran's armed forces operational headquarters "Khatam al-Anbia," Ibrahim Zolfaghari, declared the creation of a "new order" in the Persian Gulf and the imminent "deactivation" of US military bases. He had previously stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intends to charge technology giants for use of undersea internet cables running through the Strait of Hormuz — meaning companies such as Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon would be required to comply with Iranian law, while operators laying undersea cables would need to purchase specialized licenses and only Iranian specialists would be permitted to repair and maintain the underwater infrastructure. The escalating rhetoric is clearly one of the key factors behind investor caution, with most market participants preferring to wait for clearer signals from the two governments before opening new positions.

Corporate earnings are also in focus. Baidu Inc., the leading Chinese multinational technology company, reported revenue of 32.08 billion yuan — beating the analyst consensus of 31.53 billion yuan but falling short of the 32.45 billion yuan recorded in the same period last year — while earnings per share (EPS) came in at 12.06 yuan against the 11.43 yuan estimate and 18.54 yuan a year ago. The Home Depot Inc., the largest home improvement retailer, guided for revenue of approximately $41.60 billion compared to a prior estimate of $39.86 billion, while EPS guidance came in at $3.41 versus the expected $3.56.

The bond market is also responding to the fundamental backdrop, with yields once again showing corrective dynamics. Yesterday's short-term Treasury bill auctions saw 3-month paper sold at a rate of 3.600%, down from 3.610% previously, and 6-month bills at 3.615%.

Today, 1-year yields stand at 3.805%, up from 3.794% last Friday, while 10-year yields have risen from 4.560% to 4.606%. The 20-year and 30-year yields are at 5.152% and 5.139% respectively, compared to 5.104% and 5.068% previously.

Top gainers in the index: Dominion Energy Inc. (+9.44%), Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (+9.06%), ServiceNow Inc. (+8.78%), EPAM Systems Inc. (+7.98%), Fair Isaac Corp. (+7.58%).

Top decliners: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (–9.82%), Corning Inc. (–6.91%), Seagate Technology Holdings plc (–6.87%), Quanta Services Inc. (–6.10%), Enphase Energy Inc. (–6.05%).

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the index remains in a corrective trend, with a local attempt to approach the upper boundary of the ascending channel bounded by 7,650.0 and 7,180.0.

Technical indicators are maintaining a buy signal that remains stable even during the correction: the Alligator's fast EMAs are holding above the signal line, while the Awesome Oscillator histogram is forming corrective bars in positive territory.

Support levels: 7,300.0, 7,040.0.

Resistance levels: 7,495.0, 7,745.0.

S&P 500 Trading Scenarios and Price Forecast

Long positions can be opened after the price consolidates above 7,495.0, targeting 7,745.0, with a stop-loss at 7,390.0. Time horizon: 7 days or more. Short positions can be opened after the price consolidates below 7,300.0, targeting 7,040.0, with a stop-loss at 7,400.0.