The US dollar strengthened against the euro, sterling and yen ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on August 28. The Australian dollar outperformed its major peers, while oil slipped as traders weighed Washington’s shift towards economic pressure on Iran.
With the U.S. dollar easing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1684. The euro is starting the week on a positive footing even as the macro flow is mixed. The headline backdrop also includes an EIA projection that Brent crude prices could slip below $50, a potential cross-asset drag on inflation expectations.
Brent crude futures continue to trade in a local downtrend around $65.70, extending a corrective move after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued a bearish market outlook. The agency’s latest report projects a notable drop in oil prices in the near term
Since late last month, USD/CHF has been attempting to move higher and is now testing 0.8118 (Murray [5/8] level). The U.S. dollar is supported by President Donald Trump’s decision to extend the U.S.–China “trade truce” for another 90 days, until mid-November. During this period, reduced tariffs will remain in place — around 30.0% on Chinese imports and 10.0% on U.S. goods — while negotiations continue. This extension temporarily reduces the risk of a sharp escalation between the world’s two largest economies and the potential for a global downturn, reviving investor appetite for the dollar.
USD/JPY is holding near 148.41, weighed down by the Japanese government’s revised economic outlook. Officials have lowered their FY2025 real GDP growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.7%, citing the impact of U.S. trade policy and accelerating inflation.
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