Gold and Silver Rise After the Fed Decision

Precious metals remained in positive territory during Thursday’s session. Front-month COMEX gold futures settled 1.58% higher at $4,100.10 per ounce, while silver futures gained 1.60% to $58.815 per ounce.

The Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision was one of the main drivers of the move. As expected, the central bank kept the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.

However, the decision was not unanimous. Three Federal Open Market Committee members voted against maintaining the current rate and supported an immediate increase of 25 basis points. Following the meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that returning inflation to the 2% target remained the central bank’s priority.

New economic data also reinforced expectations that inflationary pressure in the United States may be easing. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.7% year-on-year in June, down from 4.1% in May.

Meanwhile, the US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, below market expectations of around 2% and slower than the 2.1% increase recorded in the first quarter.

The figures suggested that the Federal Reserve may not need to maintain an increasingly restrictive policy stance for an extended period. Lower interest-rate expectations generally support non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

FORECK.INFO recently examined the wider outlook for bullion in its XAU/USD forecast covering the Fed’s policy stance and gold’s recovery near $4,150.

Weaker Dollar Provides Additional Support

The decline in the US dollar also supported precious metals. The Dollar Index fell by close to 1% during Thursday’s session, while the Japanese yen strengthened sharply amid market speculation that Japanese authorities may have intervened in the foreign exchange market.

A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities less expensive for investors using other currencies and can therefore increase demand for gold and silver.

Physical and official-sector demand also continues to support the gold market. According to the World Gold Council, the People’s Bank of China increased its reported gold holdings for a 20th consecutive month in June.

The Chinese central bank added approximately 15 tonnes of gold during the month, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023. Total additions during the first half of 2026 reached around 40 tonnes, lifting China’s reported official holdings to approximately 2,346 tonnes.

The pace of purchases accelerated as gold retreated from its earlier highs. However, the available import data vary depending on whether shipments through Hong Kong or total mainland customs flows are measured, so the original estimate of 862 tonnes has not been retained.

Oil Prices Fall as Diplomatic Expectations Improve

Energy commodities broadly declined during the previous session. Crude oil prices reversed lower as traders assessed renewed diplomatic efforts aimed at reducing tensions in the Middle East and improving maritime security.

Brent crude settled 1.9% lower at $89.03 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate declined by around 1% to $83.59 per barrel.

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said it was continuing efforts to bring the United States and Iran back to technical-level negotiations under the framework established by the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. The market also continued to monitor talks between Iran and Oman over future arrangements for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Although the parties had not reached a final agreement, the continuation of political and technical discussions supported expectations that maritime traffic could gradually improve.

Ship-tracking data showed that some commodity vessels and crude oil tankers were continuing to pass through the strait, although overall traffic remained far below normal levels. The available figures can differ between Kpler, the International Maritime Organization and other tracking services because of reporting times, vessel classifications and ships operating with disabled transponders.

The slight recovery in tanker traffic helped ease some of the supply concerns that had pushed oil prices higher in recent sessions. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk for the market, and any renewed escalation could quickly add a geopolitical premium back into Brent and WTI prices.

For a closer look at how recovering tanker traffic is affecting the oil market, see FORECK.INFO’s Brent oil outlook on the reopening of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz