Dollar Slips and Oil Falls as Markets Reprice Fed and Iran Risks
United States. The US dollar is strengthening against the Japanese yen today while posting moderate losses against the euro and the British pound.
Markets
23
December
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By Sagar Dua - 285
The euro is gaining ground against the US dollar, extending the bullish momentum formed a day earlier. The EUR/USD pair is testing the 1.1775 level on a potential upside breakout, supported by expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to ease monetary policy in the near term. At its meeting завершившемся last Thursday, the regulator left the key interest rate unchanged at 2.15%. At the same time, the ECB revised most of its forecasts upward: economic growth is now expected at 1.4% this year, to slow to 1.2% in 2026, and then reaccelerate to 1.4% in 2027. Inflation projections stand at 2.1%, 1.9% and 1.8% respectively, while core inflation excluding energy and food is seen at 2.4% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026. These improved outlooks have provided modest support to the euro, although downside risks remain elevated amid concerns over global competition and protectionist policies, particularly from the United States.
22
December
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By Sagar Dua
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United States of America The US dollar is losing ground against its main competitors — the euro, the pound sterling, and the yen.
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By Sagar Dua
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Brent Crude Oil prices are trading within a long-term downward trend, forming a corresponding channel. Last week, quotes reached May lows near 58.55 but failed to break lower and corrected upward. The price is currently close to 59.37 (Murray level [–1/8]); a firm move below this level would confirm further downside toward 56.25 (Murray level [–2/8]) and 53.12 (Murray level [–2/8], D1). For bulls, the key resistance zone is seen at 64.00–65.62 (the middle Bollinger Band and Murray level [1/8]). A breakout above this area would allow prices to exit the channel through its upper boundary and rise toward 71.87 (Murray level [3/8]) and 75.00 (Murray level [4/8]). However, this scenario currently appears less likely in the near term.
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By Sagar Dua
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The EUR/GBP pair finished Friday near 0.8755, slipping 0.06% after a volatile close to the week. Sterling initially found support following the Bank of England’s 25-basis-point rate cut, but that strength faded as investors reassessed the broader message behind the decision.
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By Sagar Dua
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HSBC outlines a clear medium-term outlook: the bank expects the Australian dollar to outperform in 2026, with the GBP/AUD exchange rate potentially declining toward the 1.90 level by the end of the year.
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By Sagar Dua
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During the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair is correcting around 1.3785 amid weak macroeconomic data from Canada.
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By Sagar Dua
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The USD/JPY pair is trading within a long-term upward trend, forming a corresponding ascending channel. Last week, prices reached two-month highs near 157.75 following the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting.
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By Sagar Dua
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading in a local sideways range near 48,154.0.
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By Sagar Dua
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EUR/USD. The European currency remains relatively stable against the US dollar, correcting near the 1.1726 level, as investors refrain from opening new positions ahead of the start of the Christmas holiday period.
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By Sagar Dua
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The XAU/USD pair continues to gain ground, holding near fresh record highs around 4400.0 as the market waits for new directional catalysts. However, most investors are expected to step aside this week ahead of the Christmas holidays. Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), the United States will release the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September, which is being published with a delay due to the recent record government shutdown. At the same time, traders continue to assess the likelihood of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve in the coming year. As a reminder, in December the regulator cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, as expected, and maintained its forward guidance, projecting only one additional 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026. Market participants, however, are pricing in at least two rate reductions under the current economic conditions.
19
December
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By Sagar Dua
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The US dollar is strengthening against the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen.
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By Sagar Dua
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The euro–US dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) briefly climbed toward the 1.18 area on Tuesday before retreating to around 1.1720 on Wednesday. The pullback was largely driven by short-covering activity in the market.
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