Forex Market Review: Dollar Firms, German Ifo Rises
United States of America. The US dollar is strengthening against the pound and the yen, while showing mixed performance against the euro.
United States of America. The US dollar is strengthening against the pound and the yen, while showing mixed performance against the euro.
During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is correcting near 1.3561, supported by neutral dynamics in the US dollar. At the same time, the potential for the pound to continue its upward trend remains high, driven by stable macroeconomic data and signs of recovery in the UK financial sector.
During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair remains in a corrective trend near 1.1733. The European currency is trading with near-flat momentum, staying under pressure from extremely weak manufacturing activity data, as the index fell from 49.6 to 48.8 points in December. Nevertheless, the situation may shift later today under the influence of fresh macroeconomic releases, with inflation data set to be the key driver.
The U.S. dollar is strengthening against the euro but losing ground against the Japanese yen and the British pound. Trading volumes are declining as investors prepare for Orthodox Christmas celebrations and refrain from opening new positions.
Prices for benchmark Brent Crude Oil are correcting within a downward trend, holding just below the 61.00 level following the launch of the military operation dubbed “Midnight Hammer” against Venezuela. Several major media outlets, including CBS News, reported that U.S. President Donald Trump personally ordered strikes on civilian and military targets in Caracas, as well as the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. They are now expected to stand trial in New York on charges related to narco-terrorism.
The USD/JPY pair is trading near the resistance level of 156.92 and last month’s highs amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep monetary parameters unchanged at its January 29 meeting, as well as escalating geopolitical tensions in Venezuela. The yen has been one of the few major global currencies that failed to strengthen against the U.S. dollar over the past year, despite a shift in rhetoric from the Bank of Japan.
During the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6673. Market focus remains on the minutes from the December monetary policy meetings of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the U.S. Federal Reserve, which traders believe may contain signals about the next steps of the monetary authorities — and, consequently, influence the dynamics of the national currencies.
During the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair is trading in a corrective trend near 0.7946. The Swiss franc continues to hold firm against its major peers, keeping the pair close to its 2025 lows. The potential for a further strengthening of this move remains fairly high, reinforcing expectations of possible currency interventions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1740. In the first half of last year, the euro showed strong gains, appreciating by more than 15.0% at its peak. However, since the beginning of summer, the sharp upward momentum has slowed, and the pair has been confined for an extended period to a narrow range of 1.1600–1.1800, near multi-year local highs. The key driver has been the divergence in monetary policy paths between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve. The ECB has effectively paused its dovish cycle, keeping borrowing costs above market expectations, while the U.S. regulator continues to signal a more prolonged period of rate cuts.
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The FTSE 100, the leading index of the London Stock Exchange, is showing sideways movement near 9,917.0, largely reflecting a pullback in bond yields, while the annual expiry of derivatives contracts has significantly reduced market volatility after investors rotated out of risk assets. Attention is now shifting back to macroeconomic releases and conditions in the debt market—the key drivers that could allow the FTSE 100 to retest and potentially break its annual high of 9,930.0 before the end of the calendar year.
Last week, the AUD/USD pair advanced strongly and reached 0.6713 (Murrey level [8/8]), which it continues to test at the moment. Market activity remains subdued ahead of New Year celebrations, but the potential for further upside persists due to the expected divergence between the monetary policy paths of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
During the Asian session, the euro is holding near 1.1740 as markets await a recovery in investor activity after the Christmas holidays. In the absence of key macroeconomic releases, traders’ attention today will be focused on US weekly jobless claims at 15:30 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, initial claims are expected to rise from 214K to 220K, while continuing claims may increase from the previous 1.923 million.
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