Dollar Slips and Oil Falls as Markets Reprice Fed and Iran Risks
United States. The US dollar is strengthening against the Japanese yen today while posting moderate losses against the euro and the British pound.
Markets
1
December
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By Sagar Dua - 292
The GBP/USD pair is consolidating around 1.3230 as the US dollar remains broadly neutral, while the pound is supported by the newly presented budget from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves. According to the document, tax revenues are expected to rise by £26 billion, lifting the overall fiscal burden to roughly 38% of GDP. Analysts note that these measures could cool economic activity, but they also help narrow the budget deficit and strengthen investor confidence in government bonds — especially as consumer demand recovers and the labor market stabilizes.
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By Sagar Dua
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The German stock index DAX 40 is posting a moderate decline in the morning session, pulling back from the local highs of November 17 that were renewed at the end of last week. Investors are locking in part of their long profits ahead of today’s business-activity data release at 11:00 (GMT+2). Forecasts suggest that Germany’s manufacturing PMI from S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) will remain at 48.4 points, while the eurozone composite manufacturing reading is expected at 49.7 points. In recent months, industrial activity in the region has shown only modest growth, supported by higher government defense spending and infrastructure-modernization programs in Germany. However, analysts doubt that these initiatives will be enough to restore the EU’s budget surplus, as the bloc remains under pressure from intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers, the loss of cheap energy supplies from Russia, and trade restrictions introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump.
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By Sagar Dua
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The US dollar is showing a moderate decline in the USD/JPY pair, testing the 155.50 level for a downside breakout. Traders are focused on Japan’s macroeconomic data, which showed that capital expenditure growth slowed to 2.9% in Q3 from 7.6%, while analysts had expected 5.9%. Meanwhile, the Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI for November was revised slightly lower from 48.8 to 48.7. Investors are also assessing November consumer inflation figures released on Friday: the annual consumer price index for the Tokyo area eased from 2.8% to 2.7%, while the core gauge excluding food and energy remained at 2.8%.
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By Sagar Dua
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EUR/USD. The euro is trading mixed against the US dollar, holding close to last Friday’s closing levels. The pair is testing the 1.1600 area as traders wait for fresh market catalysts. At 11:00 (GMT+2), S&P Global will publish November manufacturing PMI data: forecasts suggest Germany’s S&P Global/HCOB manufacturing index will remain at 48.4, while the eurozone reading is expected at 49.7.
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By Sagar Dua
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The EUR/USD pair is moving in a corrective trend around 1.1599: eurozone data is not providing enough support for the euro, while the dynamics of the US dollar are still not strong enough to change the broader direction of trading.
29
November
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By Sagar Dua
- 352
The US dollar is strengthening against the euro and the British pound, while weakening versus the Japanese yen.
27
November
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By Sagar Dua
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Shares of coffee retailer Starbucks Corp. are trading in a corrective trend around the 86.00 level.
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By Sagar Dua
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The USD/JPY pair is correcting around 155.83 amid expectations of changes in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy.
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By Sagar Dua
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The GBP/USD pair is correcting around the 1.3257 level following the publication of the UK government budget plan by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, which increases tax revenues by £26.0 billion to 38.0% of gross domestic product (GDP).
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By Sagar Dua
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This week, the EUR/USD pair is correcting higher toward the medium-term downtrend as a possible divergence in the monetary policy paths of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve plays out, with the price testing 1.1597 (Murrey level [2/8]).
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By Sagar Dua
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EUR/USD. The euro is gaining ground against the US dollar, testing the 1.1600 level to the upside. The pair is preparing to end the current week with a fairly solid gain, while the main driver behind the correction in the greenback remains expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as the December meeting. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of such a scenario currently stands at 85.0%.
26
November
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By Sagar Dua
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EUR/USD. The euro is showing mixed dynamics against the U.S. dollar, consolidating near the 1.1600 level. The pair is developing an upward impulse formed earlier amid expectations of a potential decline in U.S. Federal Reserve borrowing costs.
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