ETH/USD Forecast: Ethereum Stuck in Range as Fed and Geopolitics Weigh

Although no active hostilities have occurred in the region since US President Donald Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran, diplomatic efforts have also failed to produce results. The three-stage plan put forward by the Islamic authorities — which includes a temporary resumption of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US Navy's blockade of Iranian ports and postponing discussions on the nuclear program — was met with deep skepticism by the White House. The Wall Street Journal reported that the President instructed his aides to prepare for the continued implementation of a pressure strategy against official Tehran through energy export restrictions, meaning the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked and the consequences of the energy crisis on the global economy will persist for an extended period. Sources at the publication also indicated that the option of a full withdrawal from the conflict "was deemed undesirable," as it would not allow Washington to achieve its key objectives regarding Iran's nuclear program.

The week's defining event will undoubtedly be the Federal Reserve's policy decision, due at 18:00 GMT. Analysts are confident the interest rate will be held in the 3.50–3.75% range, so market participants will focus on signals regarding the timing and direction of future monetary policy, as well as the future role of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He may hint at his departure once his term expires on May 15, or announce his intention to remain as a regular member of the Board of Governors for another two years — in which case Powell would likely form a significant opposition to new leadership in its efforts to reduce borrowing costs.

It is also worth noting that the ETH/USD pair is receiving some local support from developments surrounding the attack on the Kelp DAO protocol. An increasing number of companies are joining the DeFi United coalition of blockchain projects and DeFi ecosystem participants, which aims to return lost funds to clients and stabilize the decentralized finance market — most notably, Consensys and Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin, who has pledged 30,000 ETH toward the effort. In total, more than $321.25 million has already been raised. Analysts note that the cryptocurrency market has recently become less reactive to negative signals, a result of declining supply and the exit of short-term investors — a dynamic confirmed by the Fear and Greed Index, which has moved into the "Fear" zone and currently stands at 26.

Support and Resistance Levels

The pair is trading within the main range of 2400.00–2250.00, but the key level for bulls is 2500.00 (Murray level [4/8], Bollinger Bands middle line, W1): a breakout above it would act as a catalyst for reversing the downtrend and continuing the rally toward 2812.50 (Murray level [6/8], Fibonacci 61.8% retracement), 3125.00 (Murray level [+1/8], Fibonacci 50.0% retracement), and 3400.00 (near January highs). Should the price consolidate below 2250.00 (Murray level [6/8], Bollinger Bands middle line), the decline would resume toward 2000.00 (Murray level [0/8], Bollinger Bands lower line) and 1750.00 (Murray level [–2/8]).

Technical indicators are sending mixed signals: Bollinger Bands are turning upward, the MACD histogram is stable in positive territory, while Stochastic is pointing lower.

Resistance levels: 2500.00, 2812.50, 3125.00, 3400.00.

Support levels: 2250.00, 2000.00, 1750.00.

ETH/USD Trading Scenarios and Forecast

Long positions may be considered above 2500.00, targeting 2812.50, 3125.00, and 3400.00, with a stop-loss at 2315.00. Time horizon: 5–7 days.

Short positions are worth considering below 2250.00, targeting 2000.00 and 1750.00, with a stop-loss at 2440.00.