BTC/USD Forecast: Bitcoin Tests $79,687 as ETF Outflows Rise

Initial investor optimism, driven by declining expectations of two additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year, gave way to concerns that the regulator could adopt a more aggressive approach at its December meeting, putting considerable pressure on assets competing with the US dollar. Market participants are also concerned about an escalation of the Middle East conflict following a series of strong statements from Washington and Tehran. Last week, US President Donald Trump stated that negotiations with Iran were not taking place and later suggested that Washington could carry out another operation similar to Operation Epic Fury, potentially after the congressional midterm elections. Market concerns have intensified amid the evacuation of some US diplomatic personnel and their families from the Persian Gulf region. US Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned of an increased risk of Iranian attacks against American personnel and infrastructure in the region. These developments raise the possibility of renewed large-scale hostilities, prompting investors to sell risk assets while the dollar strengthens as a traditional safe-haven currency. At the same time, energy prices remain elevated, with benchmark Brent crude oil trading above 110.00, adding to inflationary pressure. As a result, the Federal Reserve could adopt a more hawkish stance, with possible indications emerging after its policy meeting on Wednesday. According to the Federal Reserve's official calendar, the decision will be announced at 20:00 (GMT+2) on October 28.

Geopolitical tensions are also weighing on Asian equity markets, which is negatively affecting the cryptocurrency sector. South Korea's KOSPI index, closely monitored by traders as an indicator of sentiment toward artificial intelligence (AI) technology due to the significant weighting of semiconductor manufacturers, declined by another 1.0%. Overall, investor sentiment toward digital assets is gradually deteriorating, as reflected in renewed outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which reached $773.5 million over the final two trading sessions of last week. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also declined within neutral territory, falling from 54.0 to 50.0 points. The broader influence of monetary policy and investor caution on Bitcoin was discussed in our previous BTC/USD forecast.

Overall, fundamental factors favour a downward correction in BTC/USD. However, the direction of price movement could change if the Federal Reserve signals that there is no urgent need to raise interest rates or if geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf ease.

Support and resistance levels

The trading instrument has been testing the 79687.50 level (Murray level [3/8]) for several sessions. A sustained break below this mark could lead to a decline toward 76562.50 (Murray level [1/8]) and 75000.00 (Murray level [0/8]). However, if the price breaks above the middle Bollinger Band at 82000.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), upward movement could resume toward 85937.50 (Murray level [7/8]) and 87500.00 (Murray level [8/8]).

Technical indicators are providing mixed signals: the Bollinger Bands are turning downward, the MACD histogram has moved into negative territory, while the Stochastic oscillator has reached the oversold zone and may reverse upward.

Resistance levels: 82000.00, 85937.50, 87500.00.

Support levels: 79687.50, 76562.50, 75000.00.

BTC/USD Trading Scenarios and Bitcoin Price Forecast

Short positions may be opened from 79300.00, with targets at 76562.50 and 75000.00 and a stop-loss at 81250.00. Estimated implementation period: 5–7 days.

Long positions may be opened above 82000.00, with targets at 85937.50 and 87500.00 and a stop-loss at 80200.00.