Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: Weak Demand Puts $77,000 in Focus

Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Begin Rising Again

After several turbulent weeks, Bitcoin is trying to regain some of the ground it lost. However, the latest on-chain indicators suggest that buying interest has yet to recover across the wider market. The change follows Bitcoin's earlier move toward $86,000, discussed in our previous BTC/USD forecast.

For much of this year, Bitcoin reserves held on cryptocurrency exchanges declined steadily. That trend was generally viewed as a positive sign, as fewer coins available on trading platforms can reduce the amount of BTC immediately available for sale. Since the beginning of October, however, the direction has shifted slightly.

According to CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have increased from approximately 2.67 million BTC in early October to around 2.68 million BTC. Although the rise amounts to only about 0.4%, it interrupts the previous downward trend and suggests that the supply of readily tradable coins is no longer shrinking at the same pace.

This does not necessarily mean that investors are preparing to sell their Bitcoin. Transfers to exchanges can occur for several reasons, including changes in custody arrangements, internal wallet movements and collateral management. Still, additional exchange supply could become a problem if buyers remain reluctant to enter the market.

That brings attention to another important indicator. Bitcoin spot demand had shown signs of improvement, with the 30-day measure gradually approaching neutral territory. More recently, however, it has turned negative again. The recovery therefore lacks the consistent buying activity that would make a sustained upward movement more convincing.

Demand in the perpetual futures market remains positive, helping offset some of the weakness in spot trading. However, derivatives activity alone is unlikely to provide a stable foundation for a longer-term recovery. When leveraged positions account for a larger share of market activity, Bitcoin becomes more vulnerable to sudden liquidations and sharp price movements in either direction. A return of stronger spot demand would therefore be an important sign that the market is becoming healthier.

Bitcoin Whales Continue Buying, but Accumulation Is Uneven

Large Bitcoin holders are also sending mixed signals. While some investors have used the recent correction to increase their holdings, others have slowed their purchases or continued reducing their exposure.

CryptoQuant data show that addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have remained net accumulators over the past 60 days. Their buying activity is not as strong as it was in late September, although the latest figures indicate a modest improvement after the earlier slowdown.

The picture is less encouraging among larger holders. Addresses with balances between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have reduced their net selling, but their overall accumulation has moved close to zero. Meanwhile, addresses containing more than 10,000 BTC continue to show a decline in their combined holdings.

In other words, Bitcoin whales are not buying in unison. Some groups appear confident enough to increase their exposure, while others remain cautious. This distinction matters because a strong recovery would be more convincing if accumulation extended across a broader range of large investors rather than being concentrated in selected groups.

There has also been a notable change in the composition of Bitcoin's largest holders. So-called new whales, generally defined in this analysis as large holders with more recently acquired coins, now account for a much larger share of the combined realized capitalization of whale holdings.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, the realized capitalization of new Bitcoin whales reached approximately $78.61 billion on October 15, compared with $159.15 billion for older whales. This gives the newer group a share of about 33.06% of the combined total, up from approximately 18% at the beginning of 2026.

The change illustrates how much more influential these investors have become. Since September, the realized capitalization associated with newer whale holdings has continued to increase, while the corresponding figure for older whales has remained relatively stable.

Realized capitalization values Bitcoin according to the price at which coins last moved on-chain. It therefore helps estimate the capital represented by different holder groups, although an increase does not necessarily equal the same amount of fresh money entering the market. Changes in wallet composition and the age of coins can also affect these figures.

Bitcoin Price: Why the $77,000 Area Matters

As newer whales gain a greater share of Bitcoin's realized capitalization, their average acquisition price becomes increasingly relevant. The level may help identify where buying interest could return if another correction develops.

Near Bitcoin's previous market peak, the estimated cost basis of new whales stood around $110,000. It subsequently declined to approximately $68,000 by late August before recovering to about $77,000 as market conditions improved and the composition of this group changed.

With Bitcoin trading near $82,134 in the October 16 market snapshot, the average new whale position was approximately 6.7% above its estimated cost basis. This is a constructive sign, as these investors were still holding their Bitcoin at an unrealized profit.

However, the margin is no longer particularly large. A renewed decline could quickly bring the market price closer to the level at which this increasingly important group acquired its holdings.

The area around $77,000 may therefore act as a potential support zone during another pullback. It represents the estimated average cost basis of newer large Bitcoin holders, who now account for roughly one-third of whale realized capitalization. If Bitcoin remains above this level and the group continues accumulating, it could help support market confidence.

A sustained move below $77,000 would create a less favourable situation. Newer whales would, on average, begin holding positions at an unrealized loss. That would not automatically trigger selling, but some investors might use subsequent rebounds to reduce exposure or exit positions closer to their original purchase prices.

Such behaviour could make it more difficult for Bitcoin to establish a lasting upward trend. The $77,000 area should therefore be viewed as a reference point for market behaviour rather than a guaranteed price floor.

Over the coming days and weeks, the most useful signals will come from spot demand, exchange flows and changes in large-holder accumulation. A renewed increase in spot buying, accompanied by stable or declining exchange reserves and broader accumulation among whale groups, would strengthen the case for a more durable recovery.

If demand remains weak and exchange reserves continue rising, Bitcoin may struggle to maintain its recent gains. For now, the on-chain data point to a market that is recovering, but has not yet demonstrated the sustained buying interest needed to confirm that the correction is over.