BTC/USD Forecast: Bitcoin Holds Near $86,000 as Fed Hike Bets Ease

Previously, analysts expected the regulator to raise interest rates twice more this year, in October and December, as higher energy prices continue to increase inflationary risks. However, incoming macroeconomic data have changed investor expectations. In August, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index came in at 3.4% year-on-year, below the expected 3.7%, while the core indicator reached 3.0% compared with forecasts of 3.3%.

At the same time, the US labour market showed signs of cooling in September: the unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, while nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29.0K, significantly below market expectations of around 90.0K. Previous employment figures were also revised lower.

Against this background, Federal Reserve officials have adopted a more cautious stance and may leave borrowing costs unchanged this month. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at the October meeting has risen to around 82%, while the probability that borrowing costs will be higher by the December meeting remains close to 83%.

Additional support for the cryptocurrency sector comes from reports that OKXICE LLC, a joint venture between cryptocurrency exchange OKX and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), has notified the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of plans to launch a tokenized securities trading venue.

The platform is expected to provide round-the-clock trading in tokenized US stocks, allowing investors to trade outside traditional market hours and use blockchain infrastructure for settlement. More than 60 listed companies are expected to be available, including Nvidia Corp., Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Tesla Inc., Strategy Inc. and Coinbase Global Inc.

The participation of NYSE parent ICE in the project indicates that tokenization and the digitalization of traditional financial assets are gaining broader acceptance among major US financial institutions, improving the long-term outlook for the digital asset industry.

Overall, sentiment among cryptocurrency traders remains positive, increasing the likelihood of further BTC/USD gains. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net inflows of approximately $241.1 million last week, marking a third consecutive week of positive flows, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the “Greed” zone at around 70.

As discussed in our previous BTC/USD forecast, Bitcoin had already resumed its upward movement in the second half of September and tested the 87000.00 area before entering the current consolidation phase.

Support and resistance levels

The trading instrument is approaching 87500.00 (Murray level [8/8]). A breakout above this level may allow the upward movement to continue toward 93750.00 (Murray level [+2/8]) and 97520.00 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement).

However, if the price breaks below the middle Bollinger Band at 81250.00 (Murray level [6/8], 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, middle Bollinger Band), a decline toward 75000.00 (Murray level [4/8]), 68750.00 (Murray level [2/8]) and 62500.00 (Murray level [0/8]) may follow.

Technical indicators continue to generate a buy signal: the Bollinger Bands and Stochastic oscillator are turning upward, while the MACD histogram remains stable in positive territory.

Resistance levels: 87500.00, 93750.00, 97520.00.

Support levels: 81250.00, 75000.00, 68750.00, 62500.00.

BTC/USD trading scenarios and price forecast

Long positions may be opened above 87500.00 with targets at 93750.00 and 97520.00 and a stop-loss at 83100.00. Estimated implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions may be opened below 81250.00 with targets at 75000.00, 68750.00 and 62500.00 and a stop-loss at 85600.00.