The crypto market is entering May with Bitcoin struggling to hold above the $77,000 mark — and that appears to be the ceiling for now. The latest Glassnode report makes clear that the key resistance zone around the True Market Mean ($78,000) and the short-term holder cost basis ($79,000) currently represents an insurmountable barrier for the leading cryptocurrency. Every breakout attempt so far has failed at these levels.
According to Glassnode analysts, on-chain data reveals a classic behavioral pattern in a challenging market environment. As soon as the price reaches the breakeven level for price-sensitive investors, they use the recovery as an opportunity to exit. When Bitcoin last tested the $80,000 level, realized profits among short-term holders climbed to approximately $4 million per hour. This selling wave exceeded available buyer-side liquidity and instantly killed the momentum.
Despite rejection at the upper levels, early signs of stabilization are emerging. The Spot Volume Delta — which for months signaled a clear sell-side dominance on exchanges — is gradually returning to neutral territory. The easing of selling pressure points to stabilization in the $60,000–$70,000 range. For a sustained trend reversal, this indicator needs to shift durably into positive territory.
Institutional Investors Repositioning
Institutional interest is stabilizing in parallel. Both CME open interest and US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings are showing early signs of recovery after an extended period of net outflows — pointing to cautious re-accumulation by professional players, though the full conviction needed for an aggressive breakout is not yet in place.
Derivatives market sentiment remains defensively positioned. Net short positions are at record levels. In the short term, this creates downside potential, but simultaneously raises the probability of sharp upside moves if a short squeeze develops. Until a meaningful increase in spot demand occurs, investors should brace for a volatile, range-bound Bitcoin market in May.
