However, recent developments point to a possible trend reversal: Bitcoin is beginning to regain strength against gold. This relative strength may be only the beginning. In the long term, several fundamental factors suggest that Bitcoin has significant upside potential — possibly even greater than gold.
Bitcoin has significant upside potential relative to gold
A key element in the current discussion is the development of the store-of-value market. Data shows that this market has grown substantially in recent years — by an estimated three to four times in less than five years. Most of this growth was absorbed by gold, while Bitcoin lagged far behind.
In 2021, gold’s market capitalization stood at around 11 trillion dollars, while Bitcoin reached approximately 1.26 trillion dollars — about a 10% share of the store-of-value market. By 2026, gold is estimated at roughly 31 trillion dollars, while Bitcoin has grown only slightly to around 1.33 trillion dollars. As a result, Bitcoin’s market share has fallen to about 3.8%.
At first glance, this may look negative for Bitcoin, but the situation could mean the opposite. These figures show that Bitcoin has so far barely participated in the inflow of capital into safe-haven assets. While gold has already advanced significantly, Bitcoin may still have substantial catch-up potential.
In addition, many of the current arguments against Bitcoin — such as technological risks like quantum computing or regulatory constraints — are long-term in nature and may weaken over time. At the same time, Bitcoin remains a unique asset thanks to its limited supply, global liquidity, and growing institutional interest.
If Bitcoin returns even to a 10% share of the store-of-value market, current models suggest a potential price of around 200,000 dollars. And that would merely be a return to former proportions, not a structural breakthrough.
Bitcoin’s current weakness may be less a sign of falling demand and more a temporary effect of macroeconomic shifts. While gold has already gone through a major rally, Bitcoin may be at the beginning of a new valuation phase.
Current dynamics suggest that Bitcoin may be entering a new phase of growth relative to gold. Strong fundamentals, Layer-2 development, and institutional interest are creating conditions for a revaluation of BTC. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could become not only digital gold, but also a key financial infrastructure of the future.