BTC/USD Forecast: Bitcoin Falls Toward 76900 Amid Security Risks, Fed Pressure and ETF Outflows

After the Kelp DAO protocol was hacked in April, when attackers gained access to 116.5 thousand rsETH tokens worth 293.0 million dollars, the Verus-Ethereum crypto bridge, which enables seamless data transfer between the Verus and Ethereum blockchains, has now also suffered an attack. According to available data, 103.6 tBTC tokens, 1625.0 ETH coins and 147.0 thousand USDC coins were stolen and later exchanged for 5402.4 ETH, equivalent to approximately 11.6 million dollars. A second major attack on users’ digital wallets within such a short period has raised fresh concerns among market participants about the security of funds invested in the crypto industry and has reduced investor interest in the sector.

BTC was also negatively affected by reports of the bankruptcy of Bitcoin Depot, a company that until recently operated the largest network of Bitcoin ATMs in the United States, with 9276 units across the country, and whose shares were listed on Nasdaq Inc. In the first quarter, the corporation’s revenue fell by 49.0%, while its total loss amounted to 9.5 million dollars. Management attributed the problems to increased government oversight as part of anti-crime measures, which resulted in constant legal pressure on the company and complicated ATM operations. This situation could significantly limit retail investors’ access to the digital asset market.

The long-term fundamental background also does not yet support price growth, as the US Federal Reserve continues to maintain its current monetary policy. In April, the Consumer Price Index rose from 3.3% to 3.8% year-on-year, compared with a forecast of 3.7%, reaching its highest level in the past three years, while the Producer Price Index increased from 4.3% to 6.0%. Thus, inflationary pressure has intensified, while the labour market shows no signs of cooling, allowing the regulator to keep interest rates unchanged until the beginning of next year and possibly even raise them later, which would significantly strengthen the US dollar against risk assets and cryptocurrencies. These factors have already led to a substantial deterioration in investor sentiment, as reflected in the continued decline of the Fear and Greed Index into the “fear” zone at 28, as well as the outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs, which began last week and amounted to 395.5 million dollars over five sessions.

Support and resistance levels

The trading instrument is located below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and is moving towards the key bearish level of 75000.00 — Murray level [4/8] and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on W1. If the price consolidates below this level, a decline towards 68750.00 — Murray level [2/8] and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement — and 62500.00 — Murray level [0/8] — is expected. However, if the price breaks back above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 79400.00, positive dynamics may develop towards 84375.00 — Murray level [7/8] — and 87500.00 — Murray level [8/8].

Technical indicators allow for a resumption of growth: the Bollinger Bands are turning upwards, the MACD histogram remains stable in the positive zone, while the Stochastic has reached the overbought area and may reverse downwards.

Resistance levels: 79400.00, 84375.00, 87500.00.

Support levels: 75000.00, 68750.00, 62500.00.

Trading scenarios and BTC/USD forecast

Long positions can be opened above 79400.00 with targets at 84375.00 and 87500.00, and a stop-loss at 76600.00. Expected timeframe: 5–7 days.

Short positions can be opened below 75000.00 with targets at 68750.00 and 62500.00, and a stop-loss at 78000.00.

Сonclusion:
Bitcoin remains under pressure as security concerns, ETF outflows and expectations of prolonged tight Fed policy weigh on investor sentiment. A breakout above 79400 could restore bullish momentum, while a move below 75000 would strengthen the bearish scenario.