BTC/USD Forecast: Bitcoin Holds Near $84,375

Pressure on the pair is coming from the lack of progress in U.S.–Iran peace initiatives. Last week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian travelled to New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly, but no direct meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration took place and contacts were conducted through mediators. The parties did not reach a final agreement: the White House leader suggested that a deal could be concluded after the November 3 congressional midterm elections, while also leaving open the possibility of renewed military escalation if diplomacy fails. A continuation of the Middle East conflict increases the likelihood that inflation in the U.S. economy will remain elevated for an extended period. However, economic resilience, confirmed by preliminary S&P Global data showing that the manufacturing business activity index rose from 53.9 points to 57.0 points, the services index increased from 56.5 points to 58.7 points and the composite indicator advanced from 56.0 points to 58.4 points, allows Federal Reserve officials to continue fighting consumer-price growth under the central bank’s dual mandate. At its September 16 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the target rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%. Meanwhile, the probability of another increase in October reached 68.1%, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool at the time of writing, providing substantial support to the U.S. dollar against alternative assets. In addition, the crypto community is concerned about the planned November departure of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Hester Peirce, who has long advocated for digital assets and clearer regulation of the industry.

Nevertheless, a deeper correction in the asset has been limited by the positive results of the meeting between the U.S. president and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two sides agreed, among other things, to continue their dialogue on the risks and benefits of artificial intelligence (AI), scheduling the next round for November, and approved reciprocal tariff reductions covering approximately $30.0 billion of goods.

Despite the broader market uncertainty, investor sentiment remains positive, as confirmed by a Crypto Fear & Greed Index reading of 70, in the “greed” zone, on September 27. The positive backdrop is also supported by continued fund inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs, previously examined by FORECK.INFO.

Support and resistance levels

The trading instrument has stabilized near 84375.00 (Murray level [7/8]) as it waits for new drivers. A breakout above 87500.00 (Murray level [8/8]) would open the way toward 93750.00 (Murray level [+2/8]) and 97520.00 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement). However, if the price breaks below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 81250.00 (Murray level [6/8], 38.2% Fibonacci retracement), the negative trend could resume toward 75000.00 (Murray level [4/8]), 68750.00 (Murray level [2/8]) and 62500.00 (Murray level [0/8]).

Technical indicators do not provide a unified signal: the Bollinger Bands are pointing upward and the MACD histogram remains stable in positive territory, while the Stochastic oscillator has reversed downward. On the weekly chart, the Bollinger Bands are still attempting to turn higher, reflecting the possibility that growth may continue.

Resistance levels: 87500.00, 93750.00, 97520.00.

Support levels: 81250.00, 75000.00, 68750.00, 62500.00.

BTC/USD trading scenarios and price forecast

Long positions may be opened above 87500.00 with targets at 93750.00 and 97520.00 and a stop-loss at 83100.00. Time frame: 5–7 days. Short positions may be opened below 81250.00 with targets at 75000.00, 68750.00 and 62500.00 and a stop-loss at 85600.00.