BTC/USD Forecast: Bitcoin Tests $62,500 Support

Assets alternative to the US dollar, including digital currencies, came under significant pressure amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, the United States and Iran continued exchanging missile strikes, increasing their intensity, while the authorities of the Islamic Republic announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz until the “situation stabilises.” Although the White House maintains that passage through this crucial maritime transport route remains open, traffic has fallen sharply as the risk premium has increased significantly. The possibility of a prolonged blockade is worrying investors, since higher oil prices could accelerate global inflation and force the US Federal Reserve to resume monetary policy tightening. This concern was reinforced by the minutes of the regulator’s latest meeting, which confirmed that officials remain worried about elevated price pressures. They acknowledged that inflation risks associated with the current energy crisis and rising investment in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies remain high, while the probability of a significant cooling in the labour market is relatively low. Officials also agreed that an interest rate increase may become necessary if the current level of price pressure persists. On Tuesday at 14:30 (GMT+2), the June Consumer Price Index will be released. If the indicator remains at current levels or continues to rise, pressure on digital assets could intensify considerably.

Nevertheless, overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency sector has recently shown signs of improvement. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reached 28, moving out of the “extreme fear” zone, while net weekly inflows into Bitcoin ETFs increased by 197.4 million dollars, ending an eight-week period of decline. According to Farside Investors, most of the inflows went to the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, which attracted 291.9 million dollars. However, outflows continued from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF. Experts note that this indicates a recovery in institutional demand for BTC ahead of the US Congress vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY), scheduled for Friday. Cryptocurrency market participants expect the bill to be approved, which could support prices. However, a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may once again turn trader sentiment negative.

Support and resistance levels

The trading instrument is approaching the support zone of 62500.00–61700.00 (Murray level [0/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands). A consolidation below this area may allow the price to continue declining toward the targets of 57000.00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and 50000.00 (Murray level [0/8], W1). However, a consolidation above the upper Bollinger Band at 65625.00 (Murray level [1/8]) may lead to a trend reversal and a resumption of growth toward 69460.00 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement) and 75000.00 (Murray level [4/8]).

Technical indicators are not providing a unified signal. The Bollinger Bands have shifted to horizontal movement, the MACD histogram is preparing to enter positive territory, while the Stochastic oscillator has reached the overbought zone and may reverse downward in the near term, indicating the possibility of a decline.

Resistance levels: 65625.00, 69460.00, 75000.00.

Support levels: 61700.00, 57000.00, 50000.00.

BTC/USD Trading Scenarios and Price Forecast

Short positions may be opened below 61700.00 with targets at 57000.00 and 50000.00 and a stop-loss at 64500.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Long positions may be opened above 65625.00 with targets at 69460.00 and 75000.00 and a stop-loss at 62800.00.