Last Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said an agreement with Iran that could allow more shipping through the Strait of Hormuz might be reached within days. The comments raised hopes that pressure on global energy markets could ease and coincided with renewed selling in the US dollar. However, no final agreement followed, and negotiations remained unresolved. Reuters reported that Iran and Oman continued discussing a framework for shipping through the strait, with several key issues still outstanding.
The dollar later came under additional pressure after weak July US labour-market data. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate declined from 4.2% to 4.1%, but nonfarm payroll employment fell by 23,000 instead of the roughly 80,000 increase expected by economists. The implications of the labour data, Federal Reserve expectations and geopolitical risks for digital assets were also discussed in our recent crypto market outlook. Following the report, market-implied expectations for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase in September fell to around 44%.
Bitcoin is also being influenced by developments surrounding Strategy Inc. The company disclosed that it sold 1,638 BTC between July 27 and August 2 for approximately $104.7 million, with proceeds used to support preferred-stock dividends and other capital-management purposes. Strategy's activity remains closely watched because the company continues to hold one of the world's largest corporate Bitcoin positions.
At the same time, positive momentum remains constrained by uncertainty surrounding the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY Act. Market participants had hoped the Senate would advance the legislation before lawmakers left for the August recess. As FORECK.INFO reported in its CLARITY Act update, further Senate consideration was pushed into September. The legislation continues to face disagreements over ethics provisions intended to address potential conflicts of interest involving senior government officials and digital-asset businesses.
The bill will also need sufficient bipartisan support to clear the Senate's procedural hurdles. A 60-vote threshold would be required to invoke cloture and overcome a potential filibuster; this should not be confused with the simple-majority threshold normally required for final passage. Senate Republican leaders therefore need support from several Democrats before the legislation can move forward.
Overall crypto-market sentiment has improved gradually. According to Farside Investors, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined net inflows of $865.3 million over the five trading sessions from August 3 through August 7. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 30, although it remains within the “Fear” zone.
Support and Resistance Levels
BTC/USD has been trading sideways for a second consecutive month within the 65,625.00–62,500.00 range, corresponding to the Murrey [6/8]–[4/8] levels and the lower Bollinger Band. The pair is currently approaching the upper boundary. A confirmed breakout above this area could open the way toward 69,460.00, the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement, followed by 75,000.00, the weekly Murrey [2/8] level. Conversely, a break below the lower boundary of the range could support a decline toward 59,375.00, the Murrey [2/8] level, 57,000.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and 53,125.00, the Murrey [–2/8] level.
Technical indicators currently provide mixed signals. The Bollinger Bands have shifted into a horizontal formation, the MACD histogram remains close to the zero line with limited momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator has reached the overbought zone and could reverse lower.
Resistance levels: 65,625.00, 69,460.00, 75,000.00.
Support levels: 62,500.00, 59,375.00, 57,000.00, 53,125.00.
BTC/USD Trading Scenarios and Forecast
Short positions may be considered below 62,500.00, with targets at 59,375.00, 57,000.00 and 53,125.00 and a stop-loss at 64,700.00. Time frame: 5–7 days.
Long positions may be considered above 65,625.00, with targets at 69,460.00 and 75,000.00 and a stop-loss at 63,200.00.
