BTC/USD Forecast: Bitcoin Recovers Near 65686 After Drop to Multi-Month Low

According to experts, the market has already gone through a large-scale reduction of speculative leveraged positions, and after the price consolidated below 60000.00, significant volumes of long positions in the 64000.00–70000.00 range were liquidated. Nevertheless, it remains dependent on external factors, while current buyer activity still does not correspond to the levels that traditionally accompany the formation of a sustainable “bottom.” An additional negative factor was the weakening of one of the important sources of support: Glassnode notes that in early June, purchases by companies forming corporate Bitcoin reserves declined noticeably. Analysts believe that the market is gradually approaching a capitulation phase, which is characterized by extreme levels of realized losses. Historically, such periods have often acted as signals of a subsequent reversal and recovery.

Market participants also focused on legislative initiatives in Japan. The House of Representatives approved a package of amendments that would recognize digital assets as financial instruments and effectively equate them with securities. If the document is approved by the upper house, the new rules will take effect next year. Among the most significant changes is a reduction in capital gains taxes on cryptocurrency transactions from the current 55.0% to 20.0%, matching the tax regime for stocks and bonds, although the new rules will begin to apply only from 2028. The legislative amendments also open the possibility of launching exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Japan focused on cryptocurrency assets. At the same time, authorities intend to strengthen control over trading operations, introduce stricter restrictions on insider trading in digital assets, and increase the maximum penalty for unlicensed cryptocurrency service providers from three to ten years in prison. Currently, 27 cryptocurrency platforms are registered in the country, including Binance Japan, Coincheck, and BitFlyer. According to experts surveyed by Bloomberg, major players will be able to adapt to the new disclosure and audit requirements, while for smaller companies compliance with these standards may become a serious financial challenge, which could ultimately force a significant share of them to leave the market.

Digital assets were also supported by the latest macroeconomic data: the U.S. producer price index showed growth, although the figures generally remained close to market expectations. The headline indicator rose by 1.1% month-on-month against the forecasted 0.7%, repeating the revised April result, and increased to 6.5% year-on-year, reaching its highest level since November 2022 and slightly exceeding the consensus forecast of 6.4%. The core index, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% compared with the previous month and by 4.9% year-on-year. Despite persistent inflationary pressure, traders have largely adapted to the scenario of the U.S. Federal Reserve maintaining tight monetary policy for an extended period. If a month ago the probability of an interest rate hike before the end of the year was estimated at around 14.0%, now, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in an almost 70.0% probability of at least one 25-basis-point increase, most likely at the December meeting, while a rate-cut scenario is not being considered at all. At the same time, most analysts expect the interest rate to remain in the 3.50–3.75% range at the June 16–17 meeting, which will be the first under Kevin Warsh.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, quotes remain in a corrective trend below the support line of the 85200.00–71100.00 channel.

Technical indicators point to the continuation of the global downtrend, maintaining the sell signal: the fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line long ago and continue to hold their fluctuation range, while the AO histogram remains in the sell zone and has not yet been able to approach the zero level.

Resistance levels: 67000.00, 74700.00.

Support levels: 63200.00, 56000.00.

BTC/USD trading scenarios and forecast

Short positions should be opened after the price consolidates below 63200.00, with a target at 56000.00. Stop-loss — 65000.00. Expected timeframe: 7 days or more.

Long positions should be opened after the price consolidates above 67000.00, with a target at 74700.00. Stop-loss — 63000.00.