According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin could be close to an important valuation floor. The analysis focuses on Bitcoin’s Realized Price, which represents the aggregate on-chain cost basis of all market participants. Historically, BTC has often formed a bottom at or slightly below this level during major bear markets, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno said in a report published on Wednesday.

“Historically, this is a level that would confirm a bottom,” Moreno said. According to him, this does not mean Bitcoin will necessarily reach it, but it remains a possibility, especially given the weakness in Bitcoin demand.

During the FTX-driven sell-off in November 2022, the Realized Price was briefly broken before the cryptocurrency recovered. For this reason, Moreno considers the level one of the most important valuation markers in the market.

Demand remains fragile

According to Moreno, demand conditions for BTC remain “deeply unfavorable.” As a result, confirmation of a bear market bottom or a bullish trend reversal may still take time.

CryptoQuant estimates that total Bitcoin demand, including speculative perpetual futures activity and apparent spot demand, fell by 652,000 BTC last week. This would mark the strongest weekly decline since January 2022. Both futures and spot demand deteriorated significantly after Bitcoin fell below $60,000, triggering long liquidations and accelerating spot selling.

At the same time, realized losses have not yet reached levels typically associated with bear market capitulation — a phase in which investors sell in panic on a large scale.

Bitcoin holders realized total losses of 187,000 BTC over the past 30 days. By comparison, when Bitcoin first fell below $60,000 in this bear market in February 2026, realized losses stood at 400,000 BTC. At the FTX-driven market bottom in November 2022, they reached 1.2 million BTC.

Is this where Bitcoin finds its bottom?

“The absence of a capitulation spike in realized losses shows that a large group of holders is still in profit at $59,000 and has not yet reached the psychological point for forced or panic selling,” Moreno wrote.

According to CryptoQuant, the potential valuation floor is located at Bitcoin’s current Realized Price, which stands at around $53,600. BTC recently dropped to about $59,000, putting it only around 9% above that level. The price has since recovered to roughly $62,000.

Moreno believes the price bottom may be close. However, a regime shift into a bull market would require a constructive recovery in demand, which is not yet visible in the data. One possible source of optimism for BTC in the coming days is the upcoming SpaceX IPO.

Conclusion:
Bitcoin may be close to a key valuation floor, but on-chain data still shows weak demand and no clear capitulation phase. A sustainable bullish reversal will likely require renewed spot demand, stronger ETF inflows, and broader market confidence.