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BTC/USD traded near 78,900.00 early Wednesday after briefly breaking above 81,000.00 for the first time since May. The price later slipped below 78,000.00 following the release of US inflation data. Bitcoin is still up approximately 24–25% since the beginning of August, with the monthly range extending from 62,232.00 to 81,142.00.
This week, the cryptocurrency market remained calm amid the Christmas holidays, with most major assets trading within narrow sideways ranges. Bitcoin (BTC) is holding near 88,700.00 (+0.5%), Ethereum (ETH) is trading around 2,960.00 (–0.3%), USDT is near 0.9993 (–0.03%), BNB stands at 840.00 (–1.3%), while XRP has slipped to 1.8600 (–2.4%). By the end of the week, total market capitalization rose to $2.98 trillion, while Bitcoin’s dominance increased to 59.4%. At the same time, balances in Bitcoin ETFs declined by $506.1 million, and Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of $63.7 million.
An unprecedented volume of options is set to expire on the cryptocurrency market, potentially acting as a catalyst for Bitcoin to break out of its prolonged sideways range. As expected, the market is showing a modest Christmas rally during the holiday period. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is holding near $89,123, up roughly 1.6% on the day. Altcoins are also benefiting from thinner holiday liquidity: Ethereum (ETH) is up about 1.3%, while XRP shows a more muted gain of 0.2%.
During the Christmas holidays, liquidity on cryptocurrency exchanges traditionally declines, and this year the market clearly demonstrated the risks associated with thin trading conditions. On Binance, the price of Bitcoin briefly collapsed by more than 70%, dropping to around $24,000.
Historically, a so-called Christmas rally occurs in the stock market in around 78% of cases. However, the cryptocurrency market has yet to confirm a similar scenario. Clear signs of a trend reversal are still absent.
Solana continues to decline and remains technically vulnerable. The chart highlights the key levels that are now coming into focus.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the authorities of El Salvador continue negotiations on the second review of the country’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. The talks focus on fiscal reforms, financial stability measures, the future of the state-backed Chivo wallet, and the next phase of the country’s Bitcoin project.
XRP/USD outlook: The XRP/USD pair is trading within a medium-term bearish trend, forming a corresponding descending channel. Last week, the price attempted a corrective rebound amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue its easing cycle next year, alongside the Bank of Japan’s rate hike. XRP tested the Bollinger Bands midline at 1.9531 (Murrey level [0/8]) and then resumed its decline, keeping downside targets at 1.6420 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%) and 1.4648 (Murrey level [–2/8], H4). On the other hand, a sustained break above the upper Bollinger Band at 2.1484 (Murrey level [2/8]) would allow the asset to exit the range to the upside and move toward 2.3437 (Murrey level [4/8], Fibonacci retracement 38.2%) and 2.5390 (Murrey level [6/8]).
The Bank of Russia has drafted a structured framework to regulate access to cryptocurrencies inside the country, signalling a shift from strict resistance toward controlled legalization. The new approach defines who can buy crypto assets, in what amounts, and through which channels. The regulator plans to integrate crypto trading into a licensed financial infrastructure by mid-2026 while aiming to reduce consumer and systemic risks.
Last week, the ETH/USD pair showed mixed price action. Initially, amid uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path for next year, quotes slipped to three-week lows around 2772.00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). However, by the end of the week—after November inflation data showed a year-on-year slowdown from 3.0% to 2.7% and increased expectations of a near-term shift toward looser monetary conditions—price stabilized near 3000.00, where it is trading now.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has again called for federal oversight of prediction markets in the United States. In his view, these platforms should fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), rather than being subject to a patchwork of state-level bans. The core question in the debate is whether prediction markets are financial instruments or should be treated as a form of gambling — an interesting and valid point, in FORECK.INFO’s view.
Last week, the BTC/USD pair showed mixed price action: the price initially declined toward the 84,365.00 area amid uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook for early next year. However, on Friday, Bitcoin recovered part of its losses and stabilized within a narrow range between 87,500.00 and 89,500.00.
The cryptocurrency market is closing out 2025 on a downbeat note: prices of leading digital assets are declining, and investor confidence continues to erode. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major coins are once again disappointing market participants, offering no clear signals of a near-term recovery.
For crypto, the framework is similar to traditional financial markets but comes with its own twist. Here, price action turns on liquidity, adoption, regulation, and flows from institutions alongside retail sentiment. Network health—hash rate, staking, active wallets—adds another layer. Macro still matters too: rates, dollar strength, and risk appetite shape inflows and outflows. Then, as with any market, you use the chart—trend, support and resistance, momentum, and volume—to spot setups and manage risk.