Tuesday’s session closed near 78,512.00, indicating that buyers are still struggling to secure a lasting break above the psychological 80,000.00 level. Even so, the rapid recovery has noticeably improved the market outlook. While the previous Bitcoin rally analysis focused on Treasury buybacks and the record short squeeze, attention has now shifted to whether BTC can extend the advance towards 83,000.00 and beyond.
Bitcoin Faces Its First Major Test at 83,000.00
LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger identifies the 82,820.00–83,000.00 area as the next significant resistance zone, close to Bitcoin’s May high. A convincing break above this range would strengthen the bullish structure and allow traders to consider higher targets.
Bitget Research chief analyst Ryan Lee expects a confirmed move above 83,000.00 to open the way towards 85,000.00–90,000.00. If the market corrects, the 74,000.00–76,000.00 region should provide the first meaningful support. Hyperion Decimus co-founder Chris Sullivan believes buyers could re-emerge around 67,000.00–70,000.00 if a deeper pullback develops.
This leaves 80,000.00–83,000.00 as the main short-term barrier. On the downside, the market’s reaction around 74,000.00–76,000.00 would provide an important test of whether the latest recovery is supported by durable demand.
IG Sees a Possible Move Towards 95,000.00–100,000.00
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore offers a more ambitious upside scenario. In his view, a sustained breakout above the current resistance could clear the way for Bitcoin to advance towards 95,000.00–100,000.00.
The rally accelerated after the US Treasury announced that the maximum size of long-dated bond buyback operations would increase from $2.0 billion to at least $4.0 billion per operation. The new limits will take effect on September 9 and do not represent a direct injection of capital into cryptocurrencies. However, the initial decline in Treasury yields and the softer US Dollar encouraged demand for Bitcoin and other supply-constrained assets.
Standard Chartered Keeps Its 100,000.00 Forecast
Standard Chartered’s official end-2026 Bitcoin forecast remains 100,000.00. However, Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, now believes that this estimate could prove too conservative following the latest rally.
If inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue, Kendrick believes BTC could retest its previous all-time high near 126,000.00 before the end of the year. Standard Chartered has not formally replaced its 100,000.00 forecast with a 126,000.00 target. The higher level remains an optimistic scenario that depends on continued institutional and spot-market demand.
ETF Inflows Must Confirm the Recovery
US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.918 billion in net inflows over the five trading sessions from August 17 to August 21. These flows represent genuine new capital, while a substantial part of the initial price surge was caused by bearish positions being forcibly closed.
Once the major short squeeze has run its course, the same source of buying pressure cannot be repeated immediately. Leveraged long positions are also beginning to accumulate. If Bitcoin fails to hold above 80,000.00, the liquidation of these positions could amplify the next downward correction.
US Inflation Brings Fresh Caution
According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year in July, exceeding the 3.6% forecast. Core PCE inflation remained at 3.3% on an annual basis.
Following the release, the futures-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September rose from 36.0% to 44.0%. The US Dollar strengthened, while Bitcoin fell back below 78,000.00. The next major catalyst will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28.
Conclusion: The immediate upside target remains 83,000.00. A sustained breakout could support a move towards 85,000.00–90,000.00 and eventually 95,000.00–100,000.00. A return to 126,000.00 should still be treated as Standard Chartered’s optimistic scenario rather than the bank’s official target. If BTC loses the 74,000.00–76,000.00 support zone, attention would shift back towards 67,000.00–70,000.00.
