While the Altcoin Season Index is not yet flashing an official signal, its values are rising rapidly, reflecting mounting momentum across top alternative crypto assets.

Over the last 24 hours, leading alts posted robust gains, while Bitcoin slipped by 0.5%—a hallmark of early altseason rotation.

Altcoin Season Index climbs as alts outperform BTCAltcoin Season Index climbs as alts outperform BTC. Data: CryptoRank  .

Ethereum Supply Crisis? OTC Liquidity Dries Up

Wintermute co-founder Evgeny Gaevoy reports that institutional OTC desks are running low on Ethereum supply, underscoring surging demand for the asset. Wintermute, founded in London in 2017, is a major market maker and liquidity provider in the digital asset space.

Despite the bullish demand, Ethereum remains inflationary, with annual supply growth around 0.69%. This points to moderate on-chain activity, even as burn rates offset part of the new issuance.

Ratio of ETH burned to minted, and annual growth rate of coin supplyETH supply growth and burn ratio, Data: Ultrasound  

In the past 24 hours, ETH price surged by 10.2%, breaking above $3,800, with renewed market interest reflected in record open interest on Ethereum futures—now above $50B.

Ethereum Futures Open Interest Dynamics.Ethereum futures open interest tops $50B, Data:  CoinGlass

Rally Not Over: STH MVRV Points to More Upside

CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost highlights that the STH MVRV (short-term holder Market Value to Realized Value) indicator shows further upside potential for ETH and the broader market. Historically, corrections occur when STH MVRV nears 1.35—equivalent to unrealized profits of 35%. Currently, the ratio is only around 1.15, suggesting the rally still has room to run before a major profit-taking event.

“Each time STH MVRV reached ~1.35, it triggered profit taking and a short-term correction. We’re still well below that mark,” notes Darkfost.

Notably, on July 11, the realized price for short-term holders of Bitcoin exceeded $100,000 for the first time, later surpassing $102,000. This, according to Darkfost, leaves 20–25% further upside potential before the market reaches a critical MVRV threshold, supporting the view that bullish momentum remains intact.

Fresh Capital Powers Bitcoin's Breakout

Glassnode analysts have also observed a significant increase in the amount of Bitcoin held by original long-term holders—rising from 4.77M to 4.91M BTC (+2.86%). This accumulation signals fresh capital entering the market and sustaining the latest price surge.

At the same time, Glassnode cautions that Bitcoin is approaching “overheated” territory, as metrics enter historic high zones after an extended rally.