The ETH/USD pair continues to form a medium-term downward trend under political and trade pressure. Over the weekend, the price attempted a corrective rebound, testing 4062.50 (Murray level [5/8], Fibonacci 23.6% correction), but failed to consolidate above it and resumed the decline today.
Investor sentiment remains weak due to ongoing concerns over U.S.–China trade tensions and the risk of a global economic slowdown. The situation is uncertain ahead of the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in Seoul on October 31. If no compromise is reached and the White House imposes 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, the crypto market could face significant pressure.
Adding to the downside, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett stated that government agencies could resume operations this week, reinforcing the U.S. dollar and weighing on alternative assets. Crypto investor sentiment remains cautious: the Fear & Greed Index has moved off multi-month lows but stays weak at 34. Moreover, Ethereum ETF outflows continue, totaling $434.8 million over the last three sessions.
Overall, the fundamental background supports further downside in the medium term.
Support and Resistance Levels
ETH/USD remains in a medium-term downtrend, correcting within a long-term uptrend. The price is approaching 3750.00 (Murray level [4/8]); a breakdown below this level could open the way to 3437.50 (Murray [3/8]), 3125.00 (Murray [2/8], Fibonacci 50.0%), and 2720.00 (Fibonacci 61.8%). The key resistance for bulls lies at 4375.00 (Murray [6/8]), above the middle Bollinger Band; consolidation above it would target 5000.00 (Murray [8/8]) and 5312.50 (Murray [+1/8]).
Technical indicators signal continued bearish momentum: Bollinger Bands are turning downward, MACD is deepening in the negative zone, while Stochastic moves upward, indicating possible short-term corrections with limited potential.
Resistance levels: 4375.00, 5000.00, 5312.50.
Support levels: 3750.00, 3437.50, 3125.00, 2720.00.
Trading Scenarios and ETH/USD Forecast
Short positions can be opened below 3750.00 with targets at 3437.50, 3125.00, and 2720.00, and a stop-loss at 3975.00. Estimated duration: 5–7 days.
Long positions can be opened above 4375.00 with targets at 5000.00 and 5312.50, and a stop-loss at 3960.00.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 3749.95 |
| Take Profit | 3437.50, 3125.00, 2720.00 |
| Stop Loss | 3975.00 |
| Key Levels | 2720.00, 3125.00, 3437.50, 3750.00, 4375.00, 5000.00, 5312.50 |
Alternative Scenario
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 4375.05 |
| Take Profit | 5000.00, 5312.50 |
| Stop Loss | 3960.00 |
| Key Levels | 2720.00, 3125.00, 3437.50, 3750.00, 4375.00, 5000.00, 5312.50 |