Overall, downside momentum has eased and cryptocurrencies have shifted into sideways trading ranges, giving analysts some hope for a renewed rebound. However, longer-term monetary factors continue to weigh on the sector, while geopolitical and trade uncertainty is pushing investors toward safe-haven assets—most notably gold.
Iran and the United States continue to prepare for a potential military confrontation, even as both sides described the latest round of talks in Geneva in positive terms. US President Donald Trump said Tehran appears willing to reach a deal, but is not yet prepared to abandon its nuclear program. Meanwhile, Washington is expanding its military presence in the Middle East, and the risk of escalation—alongside a sharp rise in energy prices and a broader global slowdown—remains on the table. Traders are also watching White House trade policy. Last Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled that a significant portion of import tariffs introduced by the Republican administration was unlawful, arguing Trump lacked authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) without congressional approval. In response, the president said additional tariffs would be pursued under other legal mechanisms. Which countries will be targeted and at what scale remains unclear, keeping risk appetite subdued.
The US dollar is also supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep policy restrictive for longer. With January unemployment down to 4.3% and inflation at 2.4%—still above the Fed’s target, especially in several household-sensitive categories—officials are leaning toward a wait-and-see approach, as reflected in recent comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. Short-term pressure on risk assets also came from Nvidia’s latest earnings report, which disappointed some analysts with revenue of $78.0 billion and sales of $68.13 billion, dragging the NQ 100 lower and weighing on correlated digital assets.
On the positive side, Coinbase has rolled out commission-free trading for stocks and exchange-traded funds (around 6,000 instruments), along with 24/7 crypto trading and instant USD funding for all users in the United States. Management said it plans to introduce perpetual futures for users outside the US via Coinbase Bermuda Ltd. and, longer term, to offer tokenized equities pending regulatory approval. Meanwhile, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin presented a roadmap outlining plans to significantly accelerate block production and transaction finality. The project, dubbed the “Straw Map,” proposes reducing transaction irreversibility time from 16 minutes to 6–16 seconds by replacing a complex confirmation mechanism with a simpler system designed to be more resilient to quantum attacks.
Overall sentiment in the crypto market remains fragile: institutional inflows into digital funds have resumed after five consecutive weeks of declines, but the Fear & Greed Index is still deep in “extreme fear” territory at 13. Under these conditions, most key assets may continue consolidating—or slip lower again—into next week.
