Ethereum is entering a rare on-chain setup that, in previous market cycles, often acted as the starting point for major trend reversals. Could this open the way for a broader recovery toward the $12,000 area?
According to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, ETH is approaching a potential turning point in the coming days. He argues that the asset is now sitting at a historic intersection of several fundamental indicators that have repeatedly marked cycle bottoms in the past.
Lee places particular emphasis on the ETH/BTC ratio. Near 0.032, the pair is hovering close to an eight-year low. The long-term mean suggests, he says, a theoretical ETH valuation around $12,000 — a massive disconnect from current prices and a sign of extreme relative undervaluation.
To him, this mismatch is a textbook case of overselling when measured against the actual pace of network adoption and ecosystem use. Another supporting signal is the historically depressed valuation of Total Value Locked (TVL). In earlier cycles, moments when ETH’s market capitalization approached TVL at nearly a 1:1 ratio turned out to be attractive entry points for counter-trend investors.
Lee believes this threshold has now been met again: the valuation of the Ethereum ecosystem, in his view, no longer reflects the real secured value stored in the network.
At the same time, the market is closely watching BitMine Immersion (BMNR), the entity connected to Lee’s Ethereum-DAT initiative. On-chain data shows that BMNR accumulated 54,156 ETH last week — roughly $169 million worth.
In total, BitMine now holds 3.56 million ETH, or about 2.9% of the entire circulating supply. Its long-term objective is to acquire roughly 5% of all ETH in circulation.
But the strategy has a downside: BitMine is currently sitting on a substantial unrealized loss. Its average acquisition price stands near $4,017 per ETH. With ETH trading around $3,120, the drawdown is roughly –22%, or close to $3 billion.
This exceeds even MicroStrategy’s peak unrealized losses during the Bitcoin bear market, which reached around $1.9 billion. The picture is further complicated by weak ETF flows — more than $1.4 billion has left Ethereum ETFs over the past month.
Still, many analysts interpret BitMine’s aggressive accumulation as a signal of strong, long-horizon institutional conviction.
Another catalyst for ETH could land this week: BitMine is scheduled to release its Q4 results and full fiscal-year 2026 earnings on Friday, November 21, ahead of the U.S. market open.