Ethereum Falls Below 200-Day Line: Bears Take Control as ETF Outflows Mount

Key Short-Term Levels for Ethereum

Significant outflows of over $835 million from Ethereum spot ETFs signal rising investor skepticism on Wall Street. Despite ongoing accumulation of more than 3.4 million tokens by the Ethereum Treasury Bitmine, the leading altcoin continues to trend lower. The chart looks technically weak, and the expected “year-end rally” is increasingly at risk. Ethereum’s decisive drop below the 200-day EMA (blue) earlier this week further worsened the outlook. Despite yesterday’s brief rebound, the price has failed to regain upward momentum. To avoid a return to the previous day’s low at $3,168, Ethereum needs to close the day around $3,365. On the upside, the turquoise resistance zone between $3,500 and $3,603 serves as a key test for the bulls. This area includes the October 10 low and the confluence of the lower trend channel boundary and the EMA200.

Ethereum: Bullish Targets for the Coming Weeks

Bullish targets: $3,500/$3,603; $3,711; $3,910/$3,991; $4,098; $4,162/$4,248; $4,447/$4,483; $4,606; $4,750/$4,958.

The breakdown from the descending channel earlier this week added to selling pressure. A brief recovery followed, but unless ETH quickly climbs back above $3,500, a retest of $3,287 remains likely. Buyers must defend this level. If Ethereum can hold it on a daily close and push back into the turquoise resistance area, bulls may regain momentum and attempt to reclaim the EMA200 “lifeline.” A breakout above $3,603 would be an important bullish signal. The next upside target lies at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level around $3,711, which acted as support multiple times in October.

Slightly above that, the falling 20-day EMA (red) poses the next challenge. Breaking this moving average would bring the blue zone between $3,910 and $3,991 into play — an area defined by the weekly high, 50% Fibonacci retracement below, and the 50-day EMA (orange) above. Bulls will likely struggle to break through this zone on the first attempt, unless strong ETF inflows from Wall Street provide support. A move above this area could push ETH toward the Supertrend level at $4,098, putting the altcoin close to the last intermediate high near the extended Golden Pocket at $4,248. Some profit-taking is expected within the orange zone. Only a sustained breakout above this region would increase the odds of a rally toward the cross-resistance near $4,447. If ETH stabilizes above key moving averages, bulls could attempt a breakout toward $4,606 — a historically significant level. A daily close above that would open the path toward the previous month’s high at $4,750. The green zone remains the ultimate bullish target.

Bearish Targets Amid Ongoing Weakness

Bearish targets: $3,399/$3,365; $3,168/$3,061; $2,905/$2,862; $2,663; $2,565/$2,458.

The previously outlined bearish scenario has materialized with a sell-off to $3,061. Bears have reinforced the downtrend. Despite large-scale whale purchases totaling $1.3 billion in ETH, the technical picture remains fragile. As long as Ethereum fails to reclaim the EMA200, sellers will likely use any market weakness to add pressure. If the price stays below the purple zone and breaks below yesterday’s opening level, a retest of the yellow zone becomes increasingly probable. The $3,168–$3,061 area is crucial for the near-term price action. A clear breakdown would shift focus to the next support zone between $2,905 and $2,862 — the level where Ethereum’s July 10 rally began. Aggressive bulls might attempt entries here. However, if the rebound remains weak and broader market sentiment continues to deteriorate, ETH could fall further toward the purple support at $2,663. An intraday dip into the dark green zone between $2,565 and $2,458 cannot be ruled out. This area marks the Golden Pocket of the broader corrective move and represents the maximum bearish target on the downside; the 61% Fibonacci retracement serves as the ultimate correction threshold.

Indicators

The RSI on the daily chart has dropped deep into bearish territory following the recent sell-off — a clear sign of waning bullish momentum. On the weekly timeframe, the RSI has reached the lower edge of the neutral zone; further declines would trigger a new sell signal and reinforce the bearish outlook. On the monthly chart, the previous buy signal is at risk of being invalidated. This week could be decisive for Ethereum and the broader crypto market in the coming weeks.